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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

$2,289,539 Vol.

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% chance
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Rules

Additional context

Updated Apr 19

On April 19, Vladimir Putin announced that “guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce”. Per the rules, "humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market". Thus, an 'Easter truce’, as it has been widely reported, will not qualify, even if reciprocated by Ukraine. An extension of a humanitarian pause constituting a ceasefire may qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Volume

$2,289,539

End Date

Sep 30, 2025

shield

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

jsjr

3h ago

NATO Secretary General Rutte to visit Washington July 14-15, he will get gangbanged by Trump, Rubio and Hegseth. This is reported by Reuters. The other day, Donald Trump announced a statement regarding Russia on July 14.

FlashFire

FlashFire

4h ago

Japan has just revolutionized Ukraine’s battlefield intelligence. By granting access to its cutting-edge SAR satellite network, Japan is giving Ukraine the power to see through clouds, camouflage, and darkness; anytime, anywhere. This real-time radar data is now directly integrated into Ukraine’s military systems, making Russian concealment nearly impossible. More than a tech upgrade, it signals Japan’s deepening strategic support and marks a turning point in Ukraine’s growing independence from U.S. intelligence networks.

FUKPOA

5h ago

FYI: UnbeatableMenace, Phantom99, Bigfootz, HellKat, and FlashFire are the same guy "POA", President of Antifa!!! He's been banned for over14 time. He just created these accounts a week ago. Just watch how he talks to his other accounts by posting lies about President Trump and his policies. He likes the comments of his accounts. That's how most of his comments have 4 likes or so. Remember he works here and gets paid for his spamming.

jsjr

11h ago

Ukrowhores are like AIDS and diarrhea, I don't want 'em

Fklibtards

Fklibtards

15h ago

Any and all libtards step up and get fkd by yours truly.

gatto

gatto

18h ago

Ukrainian border guards are killing thousands of their citizens trying to escape from Ukraine - https://x.com/Luganskiy_Twi/status/1896539242760650901

FlashFire

FlashFire

18h ago

@gatto

When your source is X you have already lost.

FlashFire

FlashFire

18h ago

@gatto

JSJR admitted to fucking men, you guys could fuck each other.

jsjr

1d ago

Kidnapping men to use as cannon fodder in Zelenskys war is humiliating, but that's what guys like FlashFire finds arousing, sadly

jsjr

1d ago

Ukrainians fight back against TCC https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1943769434541437104

FlashFire

FlashFire

2d ago

Ukraine has just shattered Russia’s summer offensive in Donetsk. With two precision strikes, it eliminated Russia’s local command structure and obliterated the ammunition depot meant to sustain a massive assault on Pokrovsk. The result: chaos, fire, and exposed Russian troops with no leadership or supplies. As Ukrainian forces tighten control over the skies and roll out homegrown weapons, Russia’s plans for Donetsk are crumbling fast and Ukraine is only just getting started.

FlashFire

FlashFire

2d ago

Russia is a failing country with an economy in collapse. Putin will die having failed to return greatness to Russia. His last thoughts will be of his great failure.

jsjr

2d ago

Fantastic country let's give them all our money so they can do this: https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1943740038442790943

FlashFire

FlashFire

2d ago

@jsjr

You do not pay shit for taxes you stupid bitch. YOU are not paying anything to any other country.

jsjr

2d ago

Ukraine = diarrhea

FlashFire

FlashFire

2d ago

@jsjr

Your comments = diarrhea

Qwertie

2d ago

@jsjr

jsjr = Russian propaganda

portofino

2d ago

Do they need money desperately? 2026?

Trippelwater

@portofino

I'll wait for the 2027 one

jsjr

2d ago

Reuters reports that Trump will personally allocate a package of weapons to Ukraine for the first time in his second presidential term Until this point, the US under his administration only sent supplies that were approved under Biden. Weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be taken from Pentagon stockpiles. The cost of the arms package could be approximately $300 million, it is planned to include Patriot missiles and medium-range offensive missiles, the final decision on the composition will be made on July 10.

Porx

Porx

3d ago

Expect Big Surprises in Ukraine Talks - Lavrov

FlashFire

FlashFire

2d ago

@Porx

He said dumb shit a thousand times... only an idiot would believe him now.

jsjr

3d ago

Putins potatis shortage https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/07/russian-potato-shortage-shows-putins-economy-is-on-brink/#:~:text=Shortages%20have%20pushed%20up%20prices,Belarusian%20leader%5D%20Alexander%20Grigoryevich%20Lukashenko.

jsjr

3d ago

SMO is over, its day 10 of CTO

MagicEightBall

1232nd day of 3 day very special military operation

jsjr

3d ago

Or the Ukronazis can just leave.. but they wont. Me and the chat want to thank the Ruskies for taking care of the problem. THANKS!!

FUKPOA

3d ago

Straightwytmail: @UnbeatableMe... Dude you're a fucking loser and you should probably get mental help. We're all watching you and your other fake accounts and cringing. @UnbeatableMe... How long have you been watching your girlfriend get fucked by a real, non-gay man? @UnbeatableMe... How do you have time for a girlfriend when you're running 6 spam accounts on this page posting every 20 minutes?

FUKPOA

3d ago

@FUKPOA

Straightwytmail:even thinks POA has 6 accounts running at the same time. Isn't that a full time job?

jsjr

3d ago

March 2026, that's a YES according to Prigozhin. Free money bitches!

jsjr

3d ago

Zelensky unprovoked retardness

FlashFire

FlashFire

3d ago

Ukraine’s newly developed glide bomb has entered testing as of late June, offering a low-cost answer to Russia’s long-range aerial threat. Designed by Ukrainian company Medoid, the kit converts 500-kg dumb bombs into guided munitions with a range up to 62 miles. Each unit costs just $25,000 to produce. Initial trials conducted on June 25 using Su-24 bombers showed positive results, and Medoid now seeks funding to begin mass production. With Russia dropping over 51,000 glide bombs since 2023, Ukraine’s domestic solution could shift battlefield dynamics by targeting command posts and rear-line assets while avoiding reliance on foreign aid.

FlashFire

FlashFire

3d ago

Ukraine has just wiped out one of Russia’s most advanced air defense systems in a devastating drone strike. A $10 million Buk-M1, once believed to be impenetrable, was hunted, tracked, and destroyed with a low-cost FPV drone. It’s the latest in a growing pattern of precision Ukrainian strikes that are dismantling Russia’s defenses piece by piece. As Putin stretches his forces thin, each loss like this brings Russia’s war machine closer to collapse.

Fav1

Fav1

3d ago

@FlashFire

Russia produces more FPV. Sorry no positive change here possible

FlashFire

FlashFire

3d ago

@Fav1

Fake girl says dumb shit. Im shocked, shocked I say!

FlashFire

FlashFire

3d ago

LightningGay lost his mind years ago.

FlashFire

FlashFire

3d ago

Russian Recovery Operation Goes Wrong: Tank Rescuing BMP Get Stuck in a Ditch & Destroyed By Drones youtube.c om/watch?v=vZJo55nolLM

POA's 4 accounts - Bigfootz, Phantom99, HellKat, and UnbeatableMenace that showed up around the same time and posted the same lies about Trump. He just can't stop talking about Trump.

@lightningG

@jsjr, By the way, POA is here as well. You know whom I talk about.

@jsjr, Fkhotcaramel: you guys miss POA? He's never left polymart. Check this out. https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election?tid=1752167920911

Fklibtards

@lightningG

I f uck poa any chance I get

0x51134

3d ago

KNURE Kuck

FlashFire

FlashFire

3d ago

Ukraine ROBOTS Force Russian Troops Into PATHETIC SURRENDER youtube.c om/watch?v=hHd_KPKlcQI

Suinag

4d ago

It's a pity I didn't learn about this resource earlier, I could have made 300% or more on this rate. It's obvious that there won't be any agreement by the end of the year, it's a given.

FlashFire

FlashFire

3d ago

@Suinag

0% of a ceasefire

jsjr

4d ago

If Prime Minister Shmygal dont get my money he says he will do something stupid tonight. Typical dirty beggar tactics, Im puking rn

jsjr

4d ago

Ukraine will need more than $40 billion in external financing in 2026, says Prime Minister Shmygal.

jsjr

4d ago

I dont wanna pay for them stupid Ukronazis no more. Russia finish them quickly plz plz plz.

Fklibtards

Caramel: i will destroy your life. Just know that u prick.

FlashFire

FlashFire

4d ago

Ukraine detains Chinese spies tasked with stealing Neptune missile technology

FlashFire

FlashFire

4d ago

In an attempt to avoid mobilisation, Kremlin now allows foreigners to serve in Russian army

FlashFire

FlashFire

4d ago

Russians Are Now Fighting ‘NAKED’... They Ran OUT of ALL Armored Vehicles youtube.c om/watch?v=s6vUzvl-gPs

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