Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
$1,838,137 Vol.
Sep 30, 2025
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% chanceRules
Additional context
Updated Apr 19
On April 19, Vladimir Putin announced that “guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce”. Per the rules, "humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market". Thus, an 'Easter truce’, as it has been widely reported, will not qualify, even if reciprocated by Ukraine. An extension of a humanitarian pause constituting a ceasefire may qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$1,838,137
End Date
Sep 30, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (18311)
Top Holders
Activity
Related
Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.
memedaddy
2m ago
RETREAT FROM HERE OR GET BUTTFUCKED!
KnureKnume
27m ago
memedaddy so badly wants to be noticed. He so badly wants to troll but he is too dumb to. So what do we do boys and girls? We click that holders box and that dumb bitch goes away forever!!! Buh Bye, LOSER!!!! LOL
memedaddy
3m ago
You need a safe space. You require censorship just to exist without having a mental breakdown. :)
memedaddy
46m ago
Kadyrov kills Putin in 2026
memedaddy
47m ago
Putin killed his former husband Prigozhin in a lover's quarrel.
memedaddy
48m ago
Russia = third world
wallettracker
2h ago
if u wanna track any wallets and receive notifications in telegram @ polymarketwalletbot
memedaddy
50m ago
Scaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaam!
The7thCapital
5h ago
My sweet little POA patient is back! Well then time to fill your mouth with my special cream. I will teach you a damn lesson - get on your knees and start spamming nasty comments. The more you write the more of my sauce you will taste. Now get to work!
memedaddy
49m ago
WhyAreYouGay.gif
memedaddy
5h ago
This is MY chat and you will all suffer!
twatinvenstor
5h ago
bro what
memedaddy
5h ago
Bend over, I'll show you for free.
memedaddy
5h ago
RUSSIANS AND IDIOTS SHUT YOUR FUCKING WHORE MOUTHS!
KnureKnume
6h ago
LOOKS LIKE PEACE IS BACK ON THE TABLE BOYS!!!!!!!!!!
jsjr
16h ago
Imagine buying this at 60ct because you believed that Trump somehow would negotiate a ceasefire.. LOL. This will go until Ukraine is defeated, its possible it happens this year but likely it wont.
memedaddy
17h ago
M Y D I C K O U T ! WATCH OUT!
memedaddy
17h ago
MY DICK OUT! WATCH OUT!
memedaddy
17h ago
SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTHS! LEST I FUCK THEM!
jsjr
17h ago
Great ceasefire negotiations bois!!!
jsjr
17h ago
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the alliance aims to strengthen Ukraine's position as much as possible ahead of any real negotiations. He dismissed the ongoing talks in Istanbul as unserious.
Car
19h ago
Trump can get a ceasefire with Ukraine and Russia just like he did with Israel. One day - out of nowhere - Trump will announce a ceasefire on Truth Social and this market rockets to 99% within seconds. Get ready. Theres 6 full months left this year.
PoorWithCryptos
9h ago
That’s why you selling lol
KnureKnume
8h ago
Like the true scumbag you are, whenever you post about how great your position is you start selling. Hoping to dump on people, but who listens to you? Nobody. Take a shower CAR, we can all smell you from here.
KnureKnume
20h ago
Zelensky wore a suit today.... He knows that this is coming to an end.
LemonMelon
7h ago
Unironically the best indicator we've seen in the last month
jsjr
20h ago
If you dont get what he means: He wants your MONEY.
jsjr
20h ago
Zelensky: We can produce 8 million drones a year, but we don't have the funding.
nyaaa
1d ago
no way this will happen as long as eu and usa keeps funding ukr and russian energy sells
gatto
20h ago
No lol. Putin is playing a game called "special military operation". He is trying his best to pretend that this is not a war. But the money is running out. High levels of corruption + destruction and privatization of profitable enterprises + flight of talent to the EU and US makes the economy weak. War is very expensive especially when half of the military costs are taken up by corruption. Putin would not sit down at the negotiating table and agree to cede territory if he wanted to continue the war. The only reason the war continues is the insane demands of Ukraine
Buttfukker3000
14h ago
Thats why he upgraded, its now a CTO
jsjr
1d ago
Friendly reminder to ppl that post irrelevant spam or even scam-links (talking to you Pennybags). This chat is for on topic discussions about the ceasefire negotiations. Its ok if you want to come here to listen and try to learn, but please keep quiet then.
KnureKnume
1d ago
TRUMP PEACE TOUR CONTINUES TOMORROW!!!!!!
Pennybags
1d ago
https://poly.market/TrumpSayNato
pachonges
1d ago
*TRUMP AND ZELENSKIY SET TO MEET AT NATO SUMMIT: US OFFICIAL
gatto
1d ago
I smell...smell money here. Daddy Trump needs to take care of the wallets of the Yes holders. i hope no one shits their pants this time
Mihigh
2d ago
It's Putins time to do the same:) let's see
GeorgiySelvestro...
2d ago
big news in 3 hours
GeorgiySelvestro...
2d ago
hi guys!
Buttfukker3000
2d ago
When ukr army destroyed its over, might even happen this year
sticky.caramel
2d ago
russian nazis have been saying this the last 3 years
Buttfukker3000
2d ago
Bitch look at my july bet
iheb
2d ago
if the iran war is resolved nato will add aids to uk no?
nouser92
2d ago
Tomorrow at the NATO summit, Zelensky is expected to deliver a speech in which he will announce a one-week ceasefire.
REDJupiter
2d ago
It's getting loud everywhere, the exchange rate will probably go up soon
RoniBaloni
1d ago
I heard it will be a 5 mins one just to resolve this market
CallSatan
2d ago
Lets go
Buttfukker3000
2d ago
Nice
gatto
3d ago
No money - No war. "The head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina stated that the resources that allowed the Russian economy to show growth for two years in the conditions of a full-scale war against Ukraine and sanctions have been exhausted. According to her, this concerns the workforce, production capacity, capital reserves of the banking system, as well as money from the National Welfare Fund (NWF), with the help of which the Russian government patched up "holes" in the budget and paid for trillion-dollar megaprojects. "We need to understand that many of these resources have really been exhausted," the head of the Russian Central Bank added. The currency reserves in the Fund have fallen to 153.7 billion yuan - the minimum since its creation in 2008, and the gold reserves of the NWF have decreased to 139.5 tons, although before the start of the big war they exceeded 400 tons." Profits of Russian businesses in March fell by a third, and in the key oil and gas sector - by half. Industry was on the verge of stagnation (1.2% growth in January-April), and civilian industries began to shrink"
jsjr
3d ago
Ukraine is a terribly corrupt country and estimates are that 1/3 of all weapons we send them are being sold on the black market, and 2/3 of all cash we send end up in the pockets of Ukronazis that use them to buy fake titties and lip implants for the Ukrowhores
gatto
3d ago
A contract on military cooperation between Kazakhstan and the UK was signed in London. WW3 so closer and closer
Amount
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