Bloomberg Opinion

Did the "cover curse" come for Trump? John Authers thinks yes in his most recent newsletter. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/eZHZX_sh Normally journalists impose the cover curse. This time, it's different. Because it didn't come from the media — or even a real magazine.

Trump's Liberation Day set off a slide in optimism among Wall Street analysts assessing Big Tech's fortunes in the year to come. ➡️ Here's my Bloomberg Opinion analysis of the lay of the land as we enter this year's first tech earnings season, beginning with Alphabet on Thursday afternoon: https://lnkd.in/eBCAnsnr

Active fund management is a big "sell", right? The flipside of this gloomy common wisdom is that buyers of active fund management businesses have plenty to choose from and can get good terms. Take this week's deal for Macquarie Group's US public-market fund manager. The buyer, Japanese bank Nomura, gets a business with decent profit margins and lifts assets under management to $770 billion. The transaction highlights some plus points about an industry seen as low-growth and structurally challenged. Dealmaking in the investment world has tended to target private capital firms for their growth potential (think of BlackRock's deals for Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and HPS Investment Partners, LLC last year), or rival public asset managers offering cost-cutting opportunities. But this is neither a dash into private markets nor a deal predicated on slashing overlapping expenses (Nomura's existing US funds unit is small.) Why might it work? First, the business being acquired is very profitable. Active fund management gets a bad wrap, but people tend to forget that it generates a lot of cash. Second, Nomura hasn't paid a high price relative to the managed assets obtained - this is a buyer's market after all. Third, there may be some opportunities to nudge growth higher through cross-selling. Finally, the business could be a useful distribution platform for any private markets firm Nomura might acquire in the future, making the deal more strategic than it first appears. The snag is that an encore in private assets won't come so cheaply. Read my latest column at Bloomberg Opinion here: https://lnkd.in/eAvh74vs

Don’t be surprised by another DeepSeek-style breakthrough, says Catherine Thorbecke. While the world worries about tariffs, China’s AI keeps growing. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dBdzypPg

I observe international affairs from Washington, capital of a superpower which used to be the world’s more-or-less benevolent hegemon, but which is now groping for a different role as a potential imperialist carving up the planet into spheres of influence. But what if you’re looking back at us in Washington from the capital of a non-major (if not “small”) power? A place, say, like Hanoi, Jakarta, New Delhi, Pretoria, Abuja, Brasilia or Mexico City — or indeed Copenhagen, Ottawa or Panama City? My advice, roughly 100 days into the second presidency of Donald Trump: Emulate Vietnam and adopt some version of its “bamboo diplomacy.” Bend with the geopolitical winds so that you don’t snap. Keep all the major powers distant, if not equidistant, and hedge your bets. Trade with all who are open to it, and in multilateral arrangements where possible. Enter into fluid alliances to deter Russia, China, the US or anybody else where necessary, sometimes with one against the others. Don’t trust the pacts you make with any of them, but don’t provoke either. Do anything that will let you stay independent and sovereign.... (Read the whole column. No paywall with this link) Bloomberg Opinion https://bloom.bg/3GoOkF2

Citadel founder Ken Griffin said President Donald Trump’s trade war has derailed business leaders’ plans to spend the next four years focusing on growth.

Europe just ended the era of “speeding ticket” fines for Big Tech. With its first Digital Markets Act enforcement, the EU isn’t just handing Apple and Meta a bill—it’s forcing them to rewrite how they do business: Apple has to open up its App Store. Meta must offer a real, free privacy option. My latest Bloomberg column shows how Brussels is forcing structural changes that strike at these companies' core business models -- and Google is likely next in line. https://lnkd.in/g5j4AX28

Can Apple raise the price of the iPhone? I explore that question here, in ✨ video ✨ Read the full column on Bloomberg Opinion here (gift link): https://lnkd.in/eQ2mnazi

Pope Francis and Mario Vargas Llosa had very different ideas. But they shared being unique voices that transcended frontiers. Latin America mourns the loss of two homegrown giants my tribute for Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/dtEVgTqA

While the news that Trump has “no intention of firing” Fed chair Jerome Powell certainly drove instant relief among traders, it’s unwise to think of it as a true turning point, says John Authers. Raising the possibility of firing Powell was an unforced error in the first place, and the messaging suggests chaos. Read all the details: https://lnkd.in/e8KK_8D4