Don’t Be Fooled by Treasury Yields
Adjusting appropriately for inflation is key to understanding the expected payoff from government securities versus stocks.
The better bet.
Photographer: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images North AmericaIt may seem as if Treasuries are the better bet these days with the US stock market back near record highs and government securities offering respectable yields again. But stocks are still likely to pay more.
The urge to ditch stocks is understandable. There’s a lot of uncertainty out there, much of which could have a direct impact on public companies, particularly around tariffs, taxes, immigration policy and deepening conflicts in energy-producing regions, most urgently Iran. It doesn’t feel like the uncertainty is fully reflected in the elevated valuations of big US companies that drive the market. Meanwhile, after many years of near-zero interest rates, Treasuries are finally paying an attractive yield.