US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
$2,046,854 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
0123456789
0123456789
% chance0123456789
0123456789
%Rules
Additional context
Updated Apr 14
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran between February 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$2,046,854
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (306)
Top Holders
Activity
Related
Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.
Insistent-Curler
6h ago
Who tryna eat my booty after this yes hits
ChinaBoy
8h ago
Must be yes
Car
8h ago
its happening
Dare24
15h ago
If the market trully believed we were going to see an escalated and prolongued conflict between the US and Iran, we would see oil prices above $100 and not mid $70s where it currently sits. The same with US stocks which have barely flinched besides all the turmoils happening this weekend. I might be wrong but with the current data in our hands, a deal is a matter of time.
Dare24
15h ago
I understand your POV but just the way the stock market and crude prices are behaving, it seems to me that smart money believes we are going to reach an agreement soon. If I were you I'd follow smart money. In diplomacy, 5 months can actually be a lot of time and the most likely is that neither country will reach a total understanding but some provisional understanding of somesort will be achieved.
JESUSISMYLORD
14h ago
To make money in the financial world, you don't need secret information. You need the truth that most decision-makers find unprofitable to acknowledge and act on. This is exactly that case.
JESUSISMYLORD
15h ago
Iran launched 6 missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar. According to YES holders, this fact will lead to peace talks as soon as tomorrow.
JESUSISMYLORD
18h ago
You're confusing cause and effect. Even if we assume there will be a deal, how exactly do you imagine that playing out? We're talking about a country against which, de facto, a war has been launched, whose nuclear programs are being systematically destroyed, and with whom a sanctions relief agreement was reached in 2016, an agreement that the US later unilaterally withdrew from, essentially betraying Iran. And now, that same country is just going to come out and say: no nuclear weapons? How do you picture that happening? Okay, let's say it does happen. How do you expect all this to unfold within just five months? There's a US Congressional election this fall. Right now, the country is effectively under bombardment. So how do you even imagine the legal framework for such a decision? How can this be pulled off in five months?
JESUSISMYLORD
18h ago
Even if a decision is made tomorrow, there’s still the deal-making process, the influence of the deep state and elite circles. Not everyone in the US or Israel is interested in ending this conflict. Have you considered that? Have you factored in that the military-industrial complex, Israel, and the US are making significant profits from this conflict? And the people who make these decisions, do you think they have no tools to sabotage peace negotiations? In reality, the only party truly interested in a peaceful resolution is Europe, because they are already suffering from extremely high energy prices. Any escalation means higher oil prices. Now add to the equation those who benefit from expensive oil, and they become part of the camp that wants the conflict to escalate. Interesting, isn’t it? That maybe nobody really wants peace? That maybe this war is just a way to make money, all under the guise of noble intentions?
JESUSISMYLORD
18h ago
Think about that.
seancombsakapdid...
24h ago
deal will be made after islamic republic falls
Dare24
1d ago
we have 6 months left for this deal to be made, odds for yes are extremely low. iran will eventually have to safe face and sign this deal. it seems like china, russia and pakistan are aiding in bringing both parties to the table. i believe we could see this treaty signed sooner than later. oil has increased but is far from the price it would need to be to reflect the true real risk of Hormuz shutdown.
seancombsakapdid...
24h ago
hes spttin actually
NothingEverHappe...
21h ago
Save face by the last symbolic surrender of signing a deal after their nuclear facilities was bombed?
HopwRoewurNe
2d ago
I'm here to give out the fell for it again award to yes bros
HopwRoewurNe
2d ago
Iran's Foreign Minister: "No negotiations with the United States"
JESUSISMYLORD
2d ago
Thanks to Polymarket for the opportunity of a short-term 6-month deposit with a 54% return.
GambleDangle
1d ago
Thats actually an insane use of this platform
Chunglee
2d ago
Trump dumped bombs on Iran's nuclear sites. No chance a deal is happening
FortniteRobloxFr...
2d ago
YES holders really think we are getting a deal instead of another pointless middle east war.
dimestorenostrad...
4d ago
I’m honestly thinking this deal is not happening. Iranian foreign minister has declared Iran will not enter negotiations as long as Israel is still bombing them, and Israel cannot (will not) stop because they’re t trying to disable Iranian offensive infrastructure. An Iranian official has also stated that they would be willing to impose limits on their uranium enrichment capacity, but not fully disable it, which Trump disagrees on. These are (at the moment) irreconcilable differences and the defense community thinks a strike this Friday/weekend is increasingly likely.
dimestorenostrad...
5d ago
Trump: "Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision on whether or not to go within the next two weeks"
dimestorenostrad...
5d ago
Rumor has it that Witkoff has been speaking to the Iranian foreign minister and he says Iran will only agree to discuss a nuclear deal when Israel stops bombing them.
MANFRED
5d ago
I have found a value bet Will the US strike the Fordow nuclear facility before July For me it should be sixty NO instead of forty My opinion is NO as many factors reduce the chance of this happening see the rules the attack must penetrate and not be neutralized Technical Limitations Fordow is underground protected by concrete and rock built to resist drones and conventional bombs Only a bunkerbuster bomb like GBU fifty seven MOP could destroy it These bombs are rare risky and their failure would hurt Trump politically He is unlikely to use them unless under extreme pressure Political and Geopolitical Context Many Republicans MAGA and Congress members want to avoid another war Trump prefers to avoid a long conflict or new fronts with Russia and China Russia and others warn of major escalation and nuclear risk US intel says Iran is not actively making nuclear weapons so justification is weak
seancombsakapdid...
5d ago
imma keep it real, supreme leader khamenei needs to build the bomb
Us.official
5d ago
I’m armed with information, and I’m here for the money, if you follow.
dimestorenostrad...
6d ago
Iranians reportedly approached the US to negotiate and are on their way to Oman right now
dimestorenostrad...
6d ago
https://x.com/ar_khamenei/status/1935104046769258560?s=46&t=QktnFK6XsDFmRK5tT93ZbA Khamenei says “we will never make concessions with the zionists”
Fena
6d ago
Thank you to all the idiot betting YES to get the odds back to 50/50. The US dollar is 50% off for a limited time thanks to you.
tripleh
6d ago
seems like a no-brainer for me? we know trump wants a deal. so either with Ali Khamenei or the next leader? happy to hear other opinions
Aura5345
7d ago
Donate if you support israel
HopwRoewurNe
7d ago
https://x.com/officialrnintel/status/1934704559450149086 US will join the conflict soon.
Naak
7d ago
What happens if the regime falls would that be yes or no ?
MrNFT
8d ago
Believe in PEACE
butterbrot
8d ago
Bombed into submission
andrepibe
9d ago
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114687664442020232 Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal
jayflipz
8d ago
Remind me what he was saying before Israel bombed Iran?
No.One
9d ago
United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff established direct contact with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday evening, CNN reported on Sunday.
seancombsakapdid...
9d ago
you people are so stupid. iran is so clearly faking diplomacy. if they give up nuclear they will and deserve to get bombed to ash
No.One
9d ago
The Jerusalem Post: Iran said to reach to US to start negotiations. http://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/64291897
StefanD
9d ago
Iran has contacted Oman and Qatar and asked them to inform the United States of its willingness to negotiat
FortniteRobloxFr...
9d ago
The US will support Israel in this war. There is no chance we are getting a deal.
NastroszonyPelik...
9d ago
There might be no nuclear facilities left in Iran in 2025... but the chances of any "deal" have vaporized with Israeli politics.
HopwRoewurNe
9d ago
zero fucking chance this deal happens, anyone who buys yes should get a fell for it again award(squared)
HopwRoewurNe
10d ago
man desperate for a good exit price below
HopwRoewurNe
10d ago
P.S. dont give him liquidity.
Amount
$