Bloomberg Opinion reposted this
Is the Bomb the only thing that kept superpowers from triggering World War III during the Cold War? My colleague Tobin Harshaw thinks we should give humans more credit. The prospect of mutual assured destruction represented by massive nuclear arsenals wasn't the key to averting a global conflagration. As he puts it: "Mutual assured destruction has a stronger grip on reality but, in addition to its poor branding, it was widely looked at in static terms: the perpetual presence of civilization-ending weapons poised on a hair-trigger. That model doesn’t hold up, for example, if even one side thinks the escalatory ladder can end with the use of lower-yield, tactical “battlefield” weapons. Abstract theories are all well and good, but let’s face it: politics, diplomacy, military strategy, soft power, even luck — these are the product of actions by fallible, flesh-and-blood humans who change their minds and adjust to new realities, as do their successors with the status quo they inherit. So, if we want to say that a mass of nuclear weapons kept the peace for decades, we need to focus on the men (alas, they are all men of course) in charge, and not the missiles." For proof, he says, look at the flexibility and foresight shown by the evolution in thinking of both Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. #nuclearwar #atombomb #ColdWar