Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.
Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Donald is going to be really embarrased. His fragile narcacistic ego is going to be bruised and he will retaliate like a toddler. You can literally bet your money on it like I am.
Iran yet to agree to a ceasefire according to all major news outlets. Depends on Israel stopping the boming, so basically nothing's changed since the beginning of the conflict. Also reports of attack on U.S. Balad military base in recent minutes.
Does anyone realise how voltaile this situation is? Even Trump says in his announcement "On the assumption that everything works as it should". Nobody can control Iran and Israel, especially not Donald. He's like Netanyahu's toy.
CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Trump: ... any aggression against us will be answered with brute force. | Iran : f**k them and send missiles to US bases. | Trump: thank Iran for your mild attack...... | what a s**t show
I'll believe it when I see it! Trump can't stop shit. He's buying time for the stock market to bounce back, giving all his mates and family maybe a day or two to prepare themselves to financially gain or minimise financial damage
Did you guys see Khamenei’s new tweet? Those who know the Iranian people and their history know that the Iranian nation isn’t a nation that surrenders.
I've never loaded up so hard on something sitting at ~12%. Been cautiously chipping away at turning my $30 USD into $300 over the past 10 days. Haven't seen an oppurtunity like this yet though, and I've seen some good one's with these Iran conflict markets.
LOL. Let me tell you guys something. It is in the USA's interests for a weakened Iran of the current regime to exist. It creates instability in the middle east and keeps the others in check. It is in the USA's interests for a nuclear Iran not to exist, but they don't want to eliminate the current regime.