Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

US military action against Iran before July?

$29,917,021 Vol.

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US military action against Iran before July?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Volume

$29,917,021

End Date

Jun 30, 2025

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Comments (16435)
Top Holders
Activity
Related

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

Beanie666

4h ago

can someone make this market sky rocket pls

DontDeportMe

bro why aint no one commenting

BigLoser

BigLoser

10h ago

Stratotanker on its way back to ME lol. BID BID BID

There is no ceasefire, Iran just attacked Israel few minutes ago. Time to enjoy for YES holders👍🏻

DontDeportMe

@ElCaudillo19

better be, whats the chances tho

Ajddope

10h ago

Iran just atacked israle again minutes ago

TheHebrewMan

@Ajddope

cease fire broken. Trump won't be happy

this should be closed already

Runefang

14h ago

Iran already broke ceasefire…

St3f

14h ago

@Runefang

jeez, they didnt broke anything, military operations were expected to be wound down over 24 hours....

Porx

Porx

14h ago

Is this a joke? Why is someone selling for 90?

peachy19

15h ago

Donald is going to be really embarrased. His fragile narcacistic ego is going to be bruised and he will retaliate like a toddler. You can literally bet your money on it like I am.

croop

16h ago

Game on, new attacks on Israel.

Beanie666

16h ago

ceasefire didnt last long

PolyWinner

16h ago

I hope I lose, life is more important

peachy19

15h ago

@PolyWinner

It's like insurance. If something bad happens, at least there's a silver lining and you get some money to support you.

peachy19

17h ago

Yes "Sell" side ("No" buy side) looking very thin. This could pop way up really any moment on the smallest ounce of news.

peachy19

17h ago

Iran yet to agree to a ceasefire according to all major news outlets. Depends on Israel stopping the boming, so basically nothing's changed since the beginning of the conflict. Also reports of attack on U.S. Balad military base in recent minutes.

St3f

17h ago

Ceasefire has begun

St3f

17h ago

@St3f

Israel stopped attacking at 04am (The Guardian)

The correct and only answer is no ceaser fire from both Iran and Israel

Kavim

Kavim

17h ago

its not over until its over guys

Mocko

19h ago

Hours left?

A looot of value on YES when lower than 20%

sorin.ranjeanu

polymarket yes holders posting shit on x trying to convince people

Iran is still being attacked by Israel and Iran didn't receive any proposal for a ceasefire. Probably Trump just lying, as always

peachy19

19h ago

Does anyone realise how voltaile this situation is? Even Trump says in his announcement "On the assumption that everything works as it should". Nobody can control Iran and Israel, especially not Donald. He's like Netanyahu's toy.

VladimirVladimirovitchPutin

@peachy19

G, ceasefire will eventually collapse.

St3f

19h ago

Peace eventually coming.

Chunglee

20h ago

I say I wake up to a new sun at 11PM tuesday

Crazykekbr

Crazykekbr

20h ago

Time to buy YES!

CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Norman78

20h ago

Trump: ... any aggression against us will be answered with brute force. | Iran : f**k them and send missiles to US bases. | Trump: thank Iran for your mild attack...... | what a s**t show

VladimirVladimirovitchPutin

@Norman78

G, they are going to break the ceasefire. Trust. Israel will.

Agartha

Agartha

20h ago

Ceasefire

peachy19

20h ago

@Agartha

I'll believe it when I see it! Trump can't stop shit. He's buying time for the stock market to bounce back, giving all his mates and family maybe a day or two to prepare themselves to financially gain or minimise financial damage

gopher

20h ago

Unconfirmed reports of a repeated attack on Iranian nuclear facilities

@gopher

Whered u find that

alonsto

20h ago

yo intel just got to me there are US jets in iran at the moment buy YES now!!!

Did you guys see Khamenei’s new tweet? Those who know the Iranian people and their history know that the Iranian nation isn’t a nation that surrenders.

peachy19

21h ago

I've never loaded up so hard on something sitting at ~12%. Been cautiously chipping away at turning my $30 USD into $300 over the past 10 days. Haven't seen an oppurtunity like this yet though, and I've seen some good one's with these Iran conflict markets.

Norman78

20h ago

@peachy19

68.80$ is loaded? ))

peachy19

20h ago

@Norman78

Did you read the rest of my comment?

VladimirVladimirovitchPutin

People really think trump gonna do nothin if Iran attack usa ?

What yall think gonna happen

VladimirVladimirovitchPutin

@Hiphoptylerj

Iran will launches second attack and US will ripost

Janvier

21h ago

Think of all that's been happening in the last 7 days.... You think you know what's gonna happen in the next 7 days? Should be at least 50-50

Why is no not 99 yet

peachy19

21h ago

Can't believe how cheap "Yes" is. I thought there must have been a peace deal. People are absolutely crazy selling Yes's/buying No's at this price.

Balen

21h ago

LOL. Let me tell you guys something. It is in the USA's interests for a weakened Iran of the current regime to exist. It creates instability in the middle east and keeps the others in check. It is in the USA's interests for a nuclear Iran not to exist, but they don't want to eliminate the current regime.

Balen

21h ago

@Balen

Meanwhile for Israel, it's different. They want to get rid of the regime. The question now is if somehow bibi can drag the USA into this.

Outcome: Yes