Trump Shock Pushes US and China Toward Decoupling Cliff Edge
An unraveling of the US-China trade relationship would be ‘disastrous,’ Yellen once warned
Takeaways NEW
Janet Yellen stepped to the podium a year ago this week in Beijing to deliver a reassuring message. The US doesn’t want to decouple from China, the then-Treasury secretary said. “Our two economies are deeply integrated, and a wholesale separation would be disastrous for both."
Twelve months on, President Donald Trump’s more than 120% tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing’s determination to fight back in kind mean the seismic cleavage Yellen warned of is rapidly becoming a reality. About $19 trillion has been wiped off the world’s equity markets since the S&P 500 Index closed at a record high on Feb. 19, and this week’s selloff in Treasuries is the worst since the pandemic. Economists have rushed to price in a US recession as Washington and Beijing engage in a dangerous bout of economic brinkmanship.