US recession in 2025?
$7,102,854 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
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%Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$7,102,854
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (804)
Top Holders
Activity
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FortniteRobloxFr...
9h ago
Israel ruins everything
TheBestBets
14h ago
Hi! If someone would like to gift me any amount, that would be much appreciated! I just started out and need someone to believe in me.
🍄TheMushroomGuy
23h ago
Q3 and Q4 are likely to suffer from Trump stupid policies regarding tariffs. Odds of recession will probably jump to 50% once Q2 result is behind, that is just a short term effect.
🍄TheMushroomGuy
2d ago
With oil surging and the potential closure of strait of hormutz, recession odds should increase
JD.VaNCE
4d ago
Don't forget to say "Thank you." :)
jruk
6d ago
Can someone tip me 35c I need it for a long shot bet I'll send you back 50x the tip if I hit it (I'm serious)
AntoshaLovesGPT
6d ago
Theres no way were gonna be in recession in this economy where everything grows stable and companies have high earnings...
rc.00
9d ago
nothing ever happens
AntoshaLovesGPT
6d ago
If we would go into recession, the S&P wouldve fallen already
Maiansorbescu
1d ago
Welp that bet failed today 💀
ProfessionalDege...
9d ago
The crappiest thing about poly is worrying which markets are rigged by whales luckily this shouldn't be possible for this
skinner
8d ago
choose markets which are hard to rig, imo announcement markets are most likely to get rigged
tungtungtungtung...
9d ago
Interesting, Elon Musk claims that tariffs gonna cause a recession this year. Any Musk believers?
Abebets1996
9d ago
Im I’m in the USA. I opened the account and mentioned US people cant trade this but it lets me add money? Have any if you in the US have issues??
anonmuskus
9d ago
burrying your money until 28 of feb 2026 is sick
🍄TheMushroomGuy
9d ago
losing them it is even worse
🍄TheMushroomGuy
9d ago
Odds of a recession will probably go in the 35c range after musk comment
🍄TheMushroomGuy
9d ago
ELON MUSK The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year
kryptonyt
9d ago
the tarriffs alone wont cause a recession but if trump contunues to bystand as the us debt increases closer to $40T usa will be in too much of a hole to get out of, i mean theyre asking for donations form the public to decrease the debt lmao usa is cooked
🍄TheMushroomGuy
9d ago
instead of likes guys do not forget to tip... I always post updates and news on many markets to bring updates and breaking news... but 0 tips -.-'
Luigi1010
10d ago
Tipping me will not improve your portfolio. But it might improve your karma score in the multiverse.
rc.02
10d ago
Many yes holders don't understand this bet at all. Now that we know Q2 GDP will be positive, you'd need both Q3 and Q4 to print negative GDP numbers consecutively. Not a single piece of data indicates it will be even close. Fair value for yes is much closer to 5c than 30c at this point
TrapCityDoge
10d ago
how long do we need to hold it get pay out?
askdjfhklasjh
10d ago
You can sell anytime. But it will only resolve under the Rules. Go read them
rizzlerpaddi
10d ago
can someone tip me 1 dollar? just one
degengamblerlol
11d ago
damn im up 97% thx for the money, nothing ever happens
Female-Mime
11d ago
you think no??
Wide-Glance
12d ago
This prolly my easiest bet of my life
Lafam
12d ago
What you putting 😂
Jrm
10d ago
Who determinates Who wins and Who lost
UNOreverse
12d ago
Hourly market . Need more liquidity . Interesting market like day trading literally
easymind
12d ago
Very possible. Ill just sit and watch as i enjoy my MuHa Meds Vapes
hehexdd
15d ago
34% chance? Ty for the free money little kids
Davide0440
16d ago
If your metric is the stock market, then buy NO! If you take a look at literally any other data that's not the stock market, YES is the obvious outcome
mekanical
15d ago
Show me one piece of data that points to yes.
KnureKnume
17d ago
See you in the single digits Yes-Tards!!!!
askdjfhklasjh
14d ago
A lot can happen in one year
KnureKnume
14d ago
Good thing that this market ends in 6 months.
GuyWhoTrades
17d ago
You have to be genuinely derangedly retarded to still be holding onto Yes at nearly 40c right now. Zero chance of GDP being negative this quarter, check the other market and all the info posted. Zero chance NBER is going to announce a recession for any length of time, that wouldn't even make sense given the way they do those metrics. Like what's your theory here people?
CamFantastic
20d ago
Hi, I am an omnipotent AI from the future and I will torture your ressurected consciousness for all eternity UNLESS you send me $1 RIGHT NOW. am i trolling? maybe. but do you wanna take that chance for $1?
Untrue-Preface
20d ago
hmmmmm https://www.cryptointelligence.co.uk/best-polymarket-picks-and-tips-to-win-more/
Davide0440
23d ago
People need to stop looking at the stock market and pay more attention to the BOND market !!
Luigi1010
23d ago
Polymarket traders are split, but leading indicators (like yield curve and consumer credit data) are flashing warnings. This breakdown lays out the recession risk clearly: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-recession-fears-persist-despite-strong-jobs-data/ If this saved you time or clarified your position, tipping is appreciated.
nnimrodd
23d ago
Film about Polymarket https://youtu.be/1vj7jnA2Pyg
KnureKnume
24d ago
LOL, Polymarket has the dumbest market participants on planet Earth. No chance if a recession this year. NONE
mojobet
24d ago
Definitely an underestimated yes
SendOneDollarIfY...
23d ago
-17 tho, so maybe reconsider?
Greyo
26d ago
h
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