US recession in 2025?
$5,816,015 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$5,816,015
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (772)
Top Holders
Activity
Related
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Davide0440
1h ago
If your metric is the stock market, then buy NO! If you take a look at literally any other data that's not the stock market, YES is the obvious outcome
KnureKnume
24h ago
See you in the single digits Yes-Tards!!!!
GuyWhoTrades
1d ago
You have to be genuinely derangedly retarded to still be holding onto Yes at nearly 40c right now. Zero chance of GDP being negative this quarter, check the other market and all the info posted. Zero chance NBER is going to announce a recession for any length of time, that wouldn't even make sense given the way they do those metrics. Like what's your theory here people?
aenews2
9h ago
Why do you think that? GDP can absolutely be negative. NBER can also declare a recession without it being negative. We could also have Q3/Q4 be negative, or NBER could declare.
Davide0440
1h ago
consumer sentiment at all time low, default rates at 2009 levels, investors are pessimistic, total chaos in the administration over trade policy blocks new investments... the recipe for a recession is here already
CamFantastic
4d ago
Hi, I am an omnipotent AI from the future and I will torture your ressurected consciousness for all eternity UNLESS you send me $1 RIGHT NOW. am i trolling? maybe. but do you wanna take that chance for $1?
Untrue-Preface
5d ago
hmmmmm https://www.cryptointelligence.co.uk/best-polymarket-picks-and-tips-to-win-more/
Davide0440
7d ago
People need to stop looking at the stock market and pay more attention to the BOND market !!
Luigi1010
7d ago
Polymarket traders are split, but leading indicators (like yield curve and consumer credit data) are flashing warnings. This breakdown lays out the recession risk clearly: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-recession-fears-persist-despite-strong-jobs-data/ If this saved you time or clarified your position, tipping is appreciated.
nnimrodd
7d ago
Film about Polymarket https://youtu.be/1vj7jnA2Pyg
KnureKnume
8d ago
LOL, Polymarket has the dumbest market participants on planet Earth. No chance if a recession this year. NONE
Greyo
10d ago
h
meistenaden
10d ago
and guess what, world health organization approved the new pandemic treaty, interesting...
Oxymirin
10d ago
And all this to cover up for flat earth. Sick
meistenaden
10d ago
hi, i bought some yes shares, i ve read in the news tha the west coast ports are not doing that great, no more china stuff received, is it true?
hifumi
10d ago
haha
Anonymous2019
11d ago
Cum se retrag banii?
justshift
11d ago
mergi la sectiunea sell si vinzi
justshift
11d ago
dupa mergi la vithdrav si da i copy paste la o adresa de primere de usdc pe reteaua Polygon
WhatIsGoingON
12d ago
Why can't I buy??? I want to profit from my own country's mistakes!!
Davide0440
11d ago
you need to bet at least 1$
WhatIsGoingON
11d ago
it says US is in the restricted countries list
twitchmohsen
12d ago
Tip me for a good luck spell from my spell book
onafets
13d ago
For the first time in its history, Moodys has downgraded the credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA1.
doomer7860
9d ago
No is so free u understand
onafets
13d ago
Moody's strips the U.S. government of top credit rating, saying presidents and lawmakers have failed to reverse rising debts.
Lazertuiyope
14d ago
is this the freeest money in the world ?
Martymchigh
14d ago
Bloomberg’s Augusta Saraiva: “US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.”
Crazykekbr
15d ago
For those betting on NO. Just check the top holder of Yes.
mekanical
15d ago
Looks like hes down more than 15k on this bet. Can't win em all. Once we get the positive q2 print i would be surprused if this market stayed above 25%.
DonaldEnjoyer
14d ago
The top yes holder is literally a well known scammer whose only claim to fame is having a good model for predicting temperature markets lol
TIP-JAR-GUY
15d ago
NO TO THE MOON, economy will boom soon
Davide0440
15d ago
Don't worry guys! Buy more No's! https://x.com/Barchart/status/1922822363617415236
KnureKnume
16d ago
I think everyone should buy YES. Trump is doing a very bad job and the U.S will be in a Great Depression very soon!!!!
Joran
16d ago
How does the bet resolve if they say something like partial or minor recession?
Davide0440
15d ago
it's still a recession
Morra
16d ago
It's not about predicting the future; it's about seeing the patterns. Q1 GDP already dipped negative. Tariffs are a lead weight on growth. Consumer confidence? Rock bottom. Manufacturing is shrinking. The dominos are already falling. Buying YES isn't a gamble; it's acknowledging the inevitable
Davide0440
17d ago
The US is heading for a default !! This is free money for everybody with eyes on the DATA https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1922352190812774897
youregodamnright
17d ago
@PowerOfAntichrist gay
pompidom
16d ago
Yup he talks too much about dick and butt. Should have known that anyone wearing that robe was gay.
KnureKnume
17d ago
PowerOfAntichrist is the type of loser that you can’t even believe could exist. Lives a meaningless life and is desperate for any attention, but nobody will give it to him as he has no positive human traits. He screams out "please someone listen to me" nobody does. He now finds himself on one of the few places on the internet where no matter how worthless you are, the website will not ban you. His comments are ignored over and over. "maybe this is the one that will make someone pay attention to me" he thinks but to no avail. BUT, we have a solution. Just like in every other avenue in his worthless life, we can press the holders square, and this piece of human dog shit disappears forever. He is the perfect example of failed parenting. If you choose to make babies, it is your responsibility to make sure that they are not so ugly and repulsive that this behavior is their only outlet. So in conclusion… ugly stupid people, you have to stop having sex.
ChinaBoy
17d ago
Of course no
Amount
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