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Why Poland’s Election Is a Barometer for Europe’s Populist Wave

Supporters of Rafal Trzaskowski at an election rally in the Main Square in Krakow, Poland, on May 13, 2025.Photographer: Jakub Porzycki/Anadolu/Getty Images

Poland’s presidential election will determine whether the country can restore the rule of law and remain a reliable partner in the European Union after nearly a decade of divisive right-wing populism.

The nationalist party that outgoing President Andrzej Duda hails from, Law & Justice, governed for eight years until Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his pro-EU coalition unexpectedly swept into power toward the end of 2023. Now, Tusk is hoping a centrist ally will take residence in the presidential palace and support his policy agenda. Efforts to rebuild democratic standards have repeatedly been thwarted by Duda.