Spring 2025 Poll

The Yale Youth Poll, an undergraduate-led research project at Yale University, today released a new poll of young American voters (aged 18-29) and the general population. The poll sampled 4,100 self-reported registered voters, including 2,025 voters aged 18-29, enabling a comparison of young voters to the electorate as a whole.

The survey included a range of questions on subjects from higher education to immigration to what the federal budget is spent on. The poll also implemented two A/B tests to gauge the effect of framing progressive policies as “human rights” and whether providing voters with basic information about government finances changes their views on the federal deficit, tax rates, and spending levels. The first message test found that arguing for progressive policies on homelessness on the grounds of “human rights” reduced support for the progressive position by 22 points.

The widest generational divides appeared on immigration and protest rights. While voters overall opposed allowing asylum seekers who enter the country illegally to stay by a 2-point margin, young voters supported allowing them to remain by a 25-point margin. On the question of whether international students should be deported for protesting the war in Gaza, voters overall opposed deportation by 36 points, while young voters opposed deportation by 65 points.

Voters under 30 were nearly split on whether teens aged 13 to 17 should be allowed access to gender transition treatments, opposing it by just a 0.1-point margin in comparison to the broader electorate, which opposed it by 24 points. They also differed on campus speech, with young voters supporting universities making political or social statements by a 6-point margin, while the broader electorate opposed such statements by a 13-point margin.

Young voters’ views on institutional trust and democratic reform followed a similar pattern. Young voters were more likely to say the Supreme Court rules based on ideology or partisanship rather than legal reasoning, whereas voters overall saw the Supreme Court as ruling based on the legal merits of cases.

Finally, our data uncovered an interesting divide within under–30s as a cohort: When asked whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in the 2026 congressional elections in their district, voters aged 22–29 favored the Democratic candidate by a margin of 6.4 points, but voters aged 18–21 favored the Republican by a margin of 11.7 points.

Trump, Vance, Musk are Unpopular with Everyone

Among voters overall, 46.5% had a favorable opinion of President Trump, while 52.7% had an unfavorable opinion (net favorability -6.2). Vice President Vance’s net favorability was -13.5, and Elon Musk’s net favorability was -18.9. Former Vice President Harris’s net favorability was -12.5, and former President Biden’s net favorability was -21.3.

Among voters under 30, President Trump’s net favorability was -17.9; Vice President Vance came in at -30; and Elon Musk was the least popular, at -34.7. Former Vice President Harris came in at -1, and former President Biden was at -19.5.

22.8% of voters overall identified as moderate, with 39.3% calling themselves somewhat or very liberal and 37% calling themselves somewhat or very conservative. 18.6% of young voters identified as moderate, while 48.4% called themselves somewhat or very liberal, and 31.9% said they were very or somewhat conservative.

Voters Overwhelmingly Support Taxing University Endowments, Expanding Pell Grants to Cover Trade School; Age Gap on Institutional Neutrality

When asked whether universities should publish statements that take a position in response to current political and social issues, 38.4% of voters overall said that they should, while 51.4% said they should not and 10.1% were unsure. But among voters under 30, 48.9% supported universities issuing statements, while 42.9% opposed and 8.2% were unsure.

When asked how they saw standardized tests, such as the SAT and ACT, 67.3% of voters overall and 66.6% of young voters said that the tests were mostly fair and made college admissions more meritocratic, compared to 17.3% of voters overall and 17.7% of young voters who said the tests were racially biased. A plurality (42.2%) of voters overall favored requiring standardized test scores for university admissions, while a majority (52.1%) of young voters preferred a test-optional admissions system.

Across age groups, trade school professors were the most trusted to educate America’s youth (+67.7 overall, +63 with young voters), while professors at private for-profit colleges were the least trusted (+10.2 overall, +16.2 with young voters).

The net favorability of elite private universities such as the Ivy League with voters overall was -4.2, with 35.1% feeling favorable, 39.3% feeling unfavorable, and 25.6% feeling neutral towards them. Among young voters, elite universities’ net favorability was +7, with 42.6% feeling favorable, 35.5% feeling unfavorable, and 21.9% feeling neutral.

87.9% of voters overall and 85% of young voters supported changing the law so that Pell Grants can be used for trade schools. 55.8% of voters overall supported a 21% tax on the annual profits of university endowments over $10 billion, as did 56.1% of voters under 30.

Young Voters More Pro-Immigration and Pro-Ukraine Than Overall Electorate; Mixed Opinions on Taiwan

Similar to our fall 2024 survey, we found that young voters were substantially more pro-immigration than the population as a whole. When asked about the level of legal immigration, 29.9% of voters overall said it should be increased, while 20.3% said it should be decreased and 43.3% said it should remain the same. Among voters under 30, 39.7% said legal immigration should be increased, 13.4% said it should be decreased, and 39.4% said it should be kept at the present level.

When asked whether particular categories of illegal immigrants should or should not be deported, young voters were less likely to favor deportation across the board. Notably, while a plurality of voters overall said that someone who crossed the border illegally and then claimed refugee or asylum status should be deported, a plurality of young voters said that these immigrants should not be deported.

Our survey found broad opposition to the deportations of international students who engaged in campus protests over the war in Gaza. When presented with arguments in favor of deportation and arguments against it, 62.4% of voters overall and 78.7% of young voters said that international students should not be deported for taking part in campus protests.

Among voters overall, 50.4% favored ending American aid to Ukraine and instead pursuing a peace deal with Russia, while 39.8% favored continuing to provide aid so that Ukrainians could protect their right to decide their own future. Young voters were much more evenly split: 43.8% favored ending aid, while 42.7% favored continuing to provide aid.

Views were more aligned on other foreign policy topics across age groups. When asked whether the United States should increase, reduce, or maintain its current level of involvement in the Middle East, 41.3% of voters overall and 40.1% of young voters favored reduced involvement, while 36.3% of voters overall and 33.6% of young voters favored maintaining current levels of involvement. 10.3% of voters overall and 10.8% of young voters favored increased American involvement in the Middle East.

When asked about a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan, 40% of voters overall said that America should neither militarily intervene nor provide economic aid to Taiwan, while 22.1% said that America should provide aid but rule out direct intervention, 18.7% said America should directly intervene, and 19.2% were unsure. Among young voters, 36% said that America should neither militarily intervene nor provide aid, 21% said America should provide aid but rule out direct intervention, 19.7% said America should intervene directly, and 23.3% were unsure.

Generational Divide on Transgender Athletes, Youth Transition Treatments

We found broad consensus across age groups that transgender athletes should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports at the professional, college, and high school levels. However, voters under 30 were more likely to say that transgender athletes should be allowed to compete than the general population, across all levels of sports tested. This generational gap was larger for lower-age categories: young voters were evenly split on whether transgender athletes should be allowed to compete in youth sports, while 60% of voters overall thought they should not be allowed. Notably, the share of respondents saying that transgender athletes should not be allowed to compete is higher for every category of sports than in a similar Washington Post poll from 2022(Link is external).

We observed a similar generational divide on gender transition treatments. Voters overwhelmingly believed that people 21 and older should be allowed to receive gender transition treatments, such as hormone therapy or surgery. Large majorities opposed transition treatment for people under 13, across age groups. But opinions diverged when it came to teenagers and young adults: Just half of voters overall said that people between 18 and 21 should be allowed to receive gender transition treatment regardless of parental consent, compared to 61.1% of young voters. 62% of voters overall thought gender transition for people 13 to 17 should not be allowed at all, compared to just 47.8% of young voters.

When asked whether it is more important to keep sentences harsh to reduce crime or limit the length of sentences to reduce mass incarceration, 49.3% of all voters and 48.4% of voters under 30 favored harsh sentences while 34% of voters overall and 33.1% of young voters favored limiting sentences.

As part of the survey, we conducted an A/B test to see how “human rights” framings affected support for progressive policies. Our results found that a human rights framing reduced support for the progressive position by 22 percentage points.

How People Think About Taxes, Spending, the Deficit, Tariffs, and More

We presented respondents with a series of arguments about tariffs and asked which came closest to their views. Voters overall were split between applying tariffs to select goods to compete with China and avoiding tariffs generally to keep prices low. Fewer than one in five voters favored Donald Trump’s position that tariffs should be applied to all imports to boost domestic manufacturing. Young people were somewhat less protectionist than voters overall, but views followed the same general pattern.

Across age groups, voters see inflation as their top economic issue — but see Republicans as mostly focused on lower taxes, and Democrats as mostly focused on better public services and higher wages.

When asked if they could improve one aspect of the economy, a plurality of all voters (40.3%) and young voters (36%) listed lower prices on goods, services, and gas. A plurality of all voters (31.5%) and young voters (31.7%) thought the Republican Party’s primary focus was lower taxes. The Democratic Party’s top priority was perceived to be better public services (selected by 25.6% of voters overall and 28.2% of young voters) or higher wages (selected by 21.1% of voters overall and 23.3% of young voters).

As part of the survey, we asked respondents how they thought the federal budget was spent and compared the results to government spending data for FY 2025(Link is external). Voters estimate the share of the budget that goes towards military spending accurately, but overestimate the share that goes to foreign aid, education, and infrastructure. Both young voters and voters overall dramatically underestimate the share of government spending that goes towards Social Security and believe that there is a substantial amount of money being lost to waste and fraud.

We ran another A/B test to gauge how much voter preferences for deficit reduction, tax rates, and spending levels were changed by providing basic information about federal revenues and expenditures. (Note that this segment was shown to respondents after the budget allocation question in the chart above.)

Half of the respondents were randomly assigned to the information group and were shown the following text:

Currently, the national debt is just over $36 trillion. Over the last 10 years, annual government spending has averaged $5.5 trillion. 75% of this spending comes from Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense spending, spending on veterans, and interest payments on the debt. Just over 50% of federal tax revenue comes from income taxes, about 30% comes from payroll taxes, and just under 10% comes from corporate taxes.

The other half of the respondents in the B group were given no additional information. Both groups were then asked the same questions: how they would prefer to reduce the deficit (if at all); whether various kinds of taxes should be raised or lowered; and whether spending on various programs should be increased or cut. Providing the information decreased the share of voters who favored deficit reduction through government spending cuts by only 3.7 percentage points and increased the share who favored deficit reduction through a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts by 1.9 percentage points.

The results below are for all voters, but the numbers and patterns looked very similar for young voters.

Being given basic information about fiscal policy treatment made respondents 2 percentage points more likely to support spending cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security on average.

It also made voters more likely to support raising consumption taxes, taxes on the wealthy, and business taxes, and less likely to support cutting taxes of any kind except for tariffs.

Voters are closely divided on whether antitrust policy should prioritize lowering consumer prices or keeping corporate power in check. Among voters overall, 42.2% say that antitrust policy should be mainly focused on keeping consumer prices low, even if that means sometimes not breaking up large companies, while 41.4% believe that it should be focused on keeping corporate power in check, even if that sometimes means higher prices (16.4% said they were not sure). Young voters, by contrast, narrowly preferred a focus on keeping corporate power in check (43.7%) over a focus on lower consumer prices (39.4%), with 16.9% saying they weren’t sure which approach they preferred.

When presented with two contrasting messages on online sports gambling, 55.6% of voters overall preferred the pro-legalization message, while 34.5% favored the anti-legalization message; among young voters, these figures were 56.9% and 34.9% respectively.

Young voters have a somewhat more positive view of cryptocurrencies than the overall population: net favorability for cryptocurrencies was -5.9 for all voters and +1.5 for young voters.

Young, Old Voters Divided Over Supreme Court Bias, United on Role of Judiciary

Results from this year’s civic knowledge questions were similar to our findings in the fall: majorities of both young voters and the population overall can correctly identify the majority party in the Senate and House of Representatives, and which party appointed a majority of Supreme Court justices. Young voters were slightly less likely to correctly describe gerrymandering, the Supreme Court appointment process, how the Electoral College works, or the constitutional amendment process. Similarly to last year, a plurality of both young voters (45.5%) and voters overall (42.5%) did not know what the Senate filibuster is. 54.5% of voters overall and 55.6% of young voters favored switching to a national popular vote system for presidential elections.

Our survey found a gap in perceptions of Supreme Court bias. By a narrow 45-43 margin, voters overall said that the Court mostly rules on the legal merits of cases; by a 45-39 margin, young voters said that the Court mostly rules to advantage one political party or ideological group. Nonetheless, voters of all ages overwhelmingly agreed that the president should obey court rulings.

A Sneak Peek at 2028: Trump Leads GOP Primary in Hypothetical Third Term Bid

Our results put the generic ballot for 2026 at D+1.6 with voters overall. Among voters 18-21, the generic ballot was R+11.7; among voters 22-29, it was D+6.4.

We found that a plurality of Democrats (and Democratic-leaning independents) would vote for former Vice President Kamala Harris (27.5%) if the 2028 Democratic primary were held today. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (21.3%) came in second, Pete Buttigieg in third (14%), and no other Democrat received more than 5% of votes. The top three candidates were the same among young Democrats only, with even stronger support for Harris (37.4%) and Ocasio-Cortez (28.2%) and weaker support for Buttigieg (9.7%).

Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, and Buttigieg also have the highest favorability ratings among Democrats, with Harris and Ocasio-Cortez both at about +60 net favorability. John Fetterman and Stephen A. Smith were the only two figures tested with negative net favorability ratings among Democrats (-17.2 for Fetterman and -16.9 for Smith). Young Democrats match these relative patterns but tend to view all political figures listed less favorably than Democrats overall do.

Just over 53% of Republicans (and 50% of Republicans under 30) would support JD Vance if the 2028 GOP primary were held today — and if President Trump was not a candidate. However, when asked how they would vote in a hypothetical primary race where Donald Trump was running for a third term, the incumbent president dominates. 56% of Republicans overall (and 49% of Republicans under 30) would back Trump, compared to 19% for Vance (21% with young Republicans).

Vance was by far the most popular figure among Republicans, with a net favorability rating of +65 overall and +54 among Republicans under 30. Like their Democratic counterparts, young Republicans tend to rate politicians less favorably overall; every figure we tested scored lower net favorability ratings among young Republicans than among Republicans as a whole. Notably, young Republicans have unfavorable views of Steve Bannon (-4.5 net favorability) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (-2.2). Both Bannon and Greene have relatively low but positive ratings from Republicans overall.

When asked what is most important for Republicans in the next election, just over 51% across age groups favored “energizing and turning out the base, by running on conservative, America-first policies that give their voters something to vote for” rather than “moderating in order to appeal to the swing voters and independents.” Among Democrats, 59% overall and 61% of young people said that Democrats should be “running on progressive policies that give their voters something to vote for” rather than moving to the middle to appeal to swing voters.

ABOUT THE POLL

The Yale Youth Poll surveyed an online sample of 4,100 registered voters from April 1 to April 3, with an under-30 oversample of 2,025. The survey was conducted in English, and its post-weighting 95% CI margin of error is ±1.9 percentage points for the full sample and ±1.8 percentage points for the youth sample. Full toplines can be found here(Link is external); crosstabs are available upon request. A full list of questions can be found here(Link is external).

Results were weighted to ensure a sample that accurately reflects the American population. For the general population sample, results were weighted by age, race, education, gender, and party ID. For the under-30 sample, results were weighted by race, gender, and party ID. The demographics of the post-weighting sample for the general population can be found here(Link is external). The majority of crosstabs are not weighted to be representative, except for the 18-29 subsample (weighted by race, gender, and party ID), and the racial crosstabs (weighted by party ID).

Spring 2025 Toplines(Link is external) Spring 2025 Poll Memo(Link is external)