Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.
Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran between February 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Remember that polymarket is looking for a 200 M investment, please use your twitter accounts since UMA whales will resolve this on not reality as the suitgate bet, https://x.com/GrindingPoet/status/1938223460146122819
The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/us-iran-talks-nuclear-program
Trump administration is said to have comversations with iranians about giving up to $30B for Iranian civil nuclear program. Wtf Trump, but that sounds like a deal about nuclears.
The talks are still happening.. they might come off a deal with it or not but i think the fair value of this market is 50/50 because the talks and the decision will occur before the end of August
The event presently carries a plausible probability in the range of 5 to 15 percent. This likelihood remains fluid and may fluctuate in response to shifts in the prevailing political climate.
My estimate is primarily based on the nature of Iran’s degenerative Islamic dictatorship a regime whose core functions seem to revolve around marrying off children and staging public executions of "infidels" and women. Frankly, it's a minor miracle they’ve managed to enrich anything at all under such absurd conditions. Given the sheer dysfunction of the system, I assign a 5 to 15 percent chance that a deal might actually go through. Under bombardment, sanctions, and all manner of external pressure, they’d likely just declare victory on state TV as they tend to do and call it a day. Who knows, maybe someone will offer them some women and shiny trinkets like they do with certain African warlords, and they’ll take the bait. Honestly, I have serious doubts about the regime’s political capacity. In a halfway competent state, such a deal would be off the table entirely.
On June 23, 2025, the relevant committee of the Iranian parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. This includes stopping cameras, inspections, and reporting until the safety of nuclear facilities is guaranteed. On June 25, 2025, the full parliament supported the bill with 221 votes out of 223. It was then sent to the Guardian Council. It will become law only after their approval. In summary, Iran will officially suspend cooperation with the IAEA and halt the inspection regime in the coming days.
According to statements by the US president, they won the war and destroyed Iran's nuclear program. If the main party, the US, believes the nuclear program is destroyed, then why make a deal? Think about that
If the market trully believed we were going to see an escalated and prolongued conflict between the US and Iran, we would see oil prices above $100 and not mid $70s where it currently sits. The same with US stocks which have barely flinched besides all the turmoils happening this weekend. I might be wrong but with the current data in our hands, a deal is a matter of time.
I understand your POV but just the way the stock market and crude prices are behaving, it seems to me that smart money believes we are going to reach an agreement soon. If I were you I'd follow smart money. In diplomacy, 5 months can actually be a lot of time and the most likely is that neither country will reach a total understanding but some provisional understanding of somesort will be achieved.
To make money in the financial world, you don't need secret information. You need the truth that most decision-makers find unprofitable to acknowledge and act on. This is exactly that case.
You're confusing cause and effect. Even if we assume there will be a deal, how exactly do you imagine that playing out? We're talking about a country against which, de facto, a war has been launched, whose nuclear programs are being systematically destroyed, and with whom a sanctions relief agreement was reached in 2016, an agreement that the US later unilaterally withdrew from, essentially betraying Iran. And now, that same country is just going to come out and say: no nuclear weapons? How do you picture that happening? Okay, let's say it does happen. How do you expect all this to unfold within just five months? There's a US Congressional election this fall. Right now, the country is effectively under bombardment. So how do you even imagine the legal framework for such a decision? How can this be pulled off in five months?
Even if a decision is made tomorrow, there’s still the deal-making process, the influence of the deep state and elite circles. Not everyone in the US or Israel is interested in ending this conflict. Have you considered that? Have you factored in that the military-industrial complex, Israel, and the US are making significant profits from this conflict? And the people who make these decisions, do you think they have no tools to sabotage peace negotiations? In reality, the only party truly interested in a peaceful resolution is Europe, because they are already suffering from extremely high energy prices. Any escalation means higher oil prices. Now add to the equation those who benefit from expensive oil, and they become part of the camp that wants the conflict to escalate. Interesting, isn’t it? That maybe nobody really wants peace? That maybe this war is just a way to make money, all under the guise of noble intentions?
we have 6 months left for this deal to be made, odds for yes are extremely low. iran will eventually have to safe face and sign this deal. it seems like china, russia and pakistan are aiding in bringing both parties to the table. i believe we could see this treaty signed sooner than later. oil has increased but is far from the price it would need to be to reflect the true real risk of Hormuz shutdown.