There's a really good chance that Trump's tariffs will outlast his time in office, and that bodes ill for a bunch of reasons, as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Clive Crook can explain:
Perhaps the most important force cementing tariffs in place will be their fiscal consequences. This came into sharper focus last week when the Congressional Budget Office did an official score of the revenues the new taxes will raise.
According to the CBO’s numbers, if the new tariffs imposed between Jan. 6 and May 13 stick (30% on imports from China and Hong Kong, 25% on cars and auto parts, the 10% baseline tariff, the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, and partial 25% tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico), they would reduce budget deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. This takes account of lower debt-interest payments, slightly slower economic growth, and inflation 0.4 percentage points higher this year and next.
Nearly $3 trillion is an enormous sum, even by US budget standards — and as public debt continues to grow, the government will need that money. In discussions over the budget bill before Congress, projected tariff revenues aren’t directly involved. Official and unofficial scorers focus on the effects of the bill on projected deficits and debt while leaving tariffs to one side — they aren’t in the measure, they’re the result of executive action not legislation, and in the past the revenues have been both modest and stable, hence barely worth discussing. #tariffs #trade #deficit