Bloomberg Opinion

Trump is picking a fight with Harvard and freezing its funding. Harvard Law professor Noah Feldman breaks down three legal strategies the university could use against his administration. https://lnkd.in/ebGRAkfn

President Donald Trump’s tariff mayhem is starting to have an impact on an industry that broadly welcomed his election: The oil sector. The International Energy Agency just slashed its forecasts for oil demand growth this year and next. It follows the EIA doing the same thing last week. The primary reason is reduced economic growth expectations as Trump pursues a chaotic trade war on multiple fronts. Worse, it is happening while Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to boost output. The result is surging excess supply. The IEA’s figures suggest a very sloppy oil market through 2026 at least, with surplus barrels potentially the highest so far this century, barring the pandemic. Drill baby drill doesn’t work when the White House is sabotaging demand. Read about it here at Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/eFctd53j

Milei's decision to let the peso move more freely and lift currency controls is a huge step toward enabling the Argentine economy to flourish my latest for Bloomberg Opinion after a historic announcement in Argentina https://lnkd.in/dEKHwWGj

As JPM CEO Jamie Dimon and other finance executives convinced President Trump to listen to a creaking bond market last week, corporate America got the next chapter in an evolving playbook on how best to manage and influence President Trump. 🔗 Read my column for Bloomberg Opinion on what the business world learned about what does — and doesn’t — capture the president’s attention. https://lnkd.in/ePnRxART 📽 Or for the video version:

Mark Zuckerberg wined, dined, praised, funded, and settled with Trump, and in return he's got... nothing, so far? My Bloomberg Opinion column today marks the start of Meta's antitrust trial in Washington D.C, where FTC prosecutors will call for the social networking giant to be broken up in the Instagram and Whatsapp-sized pieces. #meta #antitrust #markzuckerberg https://lnkd.in/erXBS5wE

Fiddling financial rules to gin up more Treasury buyers is a bad look. But the US isn’t going to get banks to replace foreign buyers of its debt like this! Bloomberg Opinion Bessent Is Wrong About Banks Saving Treasuries https://lnkd.in/e2vJaK3K

COLUMN: Just because oil prices have fallen 20% to a 4-year low since President Donald Trump arrived at the White House doesn’t mean that oil is a bargain. It does mean, however, that it’s cheap. But what’s cheap could become cheaper. "Right now, the market is pricing in an economic slowdown and more-than-expected OPEC+ production. But oil traders aren’t pricing in either a recession in America — let alone in China — or a full-blown Saudi-instigated price war. And they aren’t pricing a combination of both a recession and a price war. If those risks materialized, WTI can easily drop below $50 a barrel well into the $40s and even the $30s." "Another question, though, is whether oil can drop below $50 a barrel — so, about $10 below where it traded on Friday — and stay there for a long period, measured in years rather than months. The answer is almost certainly “no” because supply and demand will rebalance quickly at those levels. And that opens investment opportunities for the brave if prices decline a bit further. For those with the stomach to weather significant but temporary mark-to-market losses, forward oil contracts for delivery a couple of years from now are approaching attractive levels. Think about WTI in December 2027, for example." [...] "For the past 18 months and up to the current selloff, I have been indubitably bearish. But the game is starting to change. The perma-bulls and the OPEC+ cheerleaders have thrown in their towels, which is always a good sign to take the opposite trade. Below $60, the risk-reward of being bearish is clearly different than it was when WTI traded near $100 in late 2023. But buying the dip? I like cheap but prefer everything-must-go bargains. Ask me again if we get closer to $50 a barrel." #oil #energy #tradewar Bloomberg Opinion

Free to read! Trump’s chaotic tariff U-turns last week exposed his core weakness, that he does not want a fiscal crisis. So the world found an opening, including China. My latest for Bloomberg Opinion

China Won’t Blink First in Its Fight With the US In my latest column, I explore why Beijing is unlikely to back down first in its escalating trade war with Washington. Both nations are entrenched in a high-stakes standoff. China’s diversified trade partnerships and political system suggest it can endure prolonged tensions. Meanwhile, American consumers face rising costs on essential goods, and global markets are feeling the strain. Read the full piece here: https://lnkd.in/gp_3fkGJ #TradeWar #USChinaRelations #GlobalEconomy #Tariffs #Geopolitics

Wall Street's role in convincing President Trump to pause higher tariffs on dozens of countries is resetting the prevailing view in corporate America about how best to influence the president. To be clear, none of what follows is anything close to an ideal way for the business community to engage with a US president. But that being said, here’s what I see working: 1️⃣ Admit when you’re wrong — and speak up. CEOs have, for the most part, been unwilling to speak out against Trump on practically any issue, fearing retribution. In this case, finance execs had to both publicly break with the president on tariffs, as well as eat some crow about their previous dismissiveness over the impact tariffs might have. 2️⃣ But tread carefully and dole out some praise. Rather than go scorched earth in an appearance on Fox Business, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon defended the idea of some tariffs, saying it is “perfectly reasonable for someone to say trade was unfair.” Pershing Square's Bill Ackman also made sure to pad the criticism, writing on X that he had “a lot of respect for our president and what he has accomplished so far." 3️⃣ Speak on platforms where you know he’ll be listening. Trump is an avid consumer of television news and social media, so finance chiefs took to these mediums to speak to the president directly. Dimon, for example, knew Trump would be watching his Fox Business appearance. 4️⃣ Offer a way out, and let him take the credit. Ackman first posed the idea of a 90-day pause, and Trump’s eventual announcement looked strikingly similar to that suggestion. Ackman, however, let Trump claim credit, posting on X, “This was brilliantly executed by @realDonaldTrump. Textbook, Art of the Deal.” The post led to a collective groan on social media, but it was more effective with Trump than an “I told you so.” My latest for Bloomberg Opinion. https://lnkd.in/ePnRxART