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US recession in 2025?

$5,938,712 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

Source: Polymarket.com

Order Book

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Volume

$5,938,712

End Date

Feb 28, 2026

Comments (767)
Top Holders
Activity
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Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

hehexdd

19h ago

34% chance? Ty for the free money little kids

kikoz

kikoz

23h ago

anyone gift so i can place a bet in here 🙏 thanks gng

Davide0440

2d ago

If your metric is the stock market, then buy NO! If you take a look at literally any other data that's not the stock market, YES is the obvious outcome

mekanical

1d ago

@Davide0440

Show me one piece of data that points to yes.

KnureKnume

3d ago

See you in the single digits Yes-Tards!!!!

GuyWhoTrades

GuyWhoTrades

3d ago

You have to be genuinely derangedly retarded to still be holding onto Yes at nearly 40c right now. Zero chance of GDP being negative this quarter, check the other market and all the info posted. Zero chance NBER is going to announce a recession for any length of time, that wouldn't even make sense given the way they do those metrics. Like what's your theory here people?

Hi, I am an omnipotent AI from the future and I will torture your ressurected consciousness for all eternity UNLESS you send me $1 RIGHT NOW. am i trolling? maybe. but do you wanna take that chance for $1?

hmmmmm https://www.cryptointelligence.co.uk/best-polymarket-picks-and-tips-to-win-more/

Davide0440

9d ago

People need to stop looking at the stock market and pay more attention to the BOND market !!

Luigi1010

Luigi1010

9d ago

Polymarket traders are split, but leading indicators (like yield curve and consumer credit data) are flashing warnings. This breakdown lays out the recession risk clearly: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-recession-fears-persist-despite-strong-jobs-data/ If this saved you time or clarified your position, tipping is appreciated.

nnimrodd

nnimrodd

9d ago

Film about Polymarket https://youtu.be/1vj7jnA2Pyg

KnureKnume

10d ago

LOL, Polymarket has the dumbest market participants on planet Earth. No chance if a recession this year. NONE

mojobet

10d ago

Definitely an underestimated yes

SendOneDollarIfYouArentGay

@mojobet

-17 tho, so maybe reconsider?

Jkid0789

10d ago

Please don’t send me $137 I beg do nottttttt

GuyWhoTrades

GuyWhoTrades

3d ago

@Jkid0789

God you're pathetic

doomer7860

11d ago

so free imo lmao

Zvc.296

9d ago

@doomer7860

"42 no" LMAO

JoaoAlex

JoaoAlex

1d ago

@Zvc.296

still free money

BigLoser

BigLoser

12d ago

back to 50% then down only

doomer7860

11d ago

Greyo

Greyo

12d ago

h

hii manisha

@Manisha1221

helooo whatsupp

and guess what, world health organization approved the new pandemic treaty, interesting...

Oxymirin

Oxymirin

12d ago

@meistenaden

And all this to cover up for flat earth. Sick

hi, i bought some yes shares, i ve read in the news tha the west coast ports are not doing that great, no more china stuff received, is it true?

hifumi

12d ago

haha

yalis

13d ago

BROTHER , send me some money , i want to play for fun

Knowledge

Knowledge

13d ago

@yalis

get a job

Cum se retrag banii?

justshift

13d ago

@Anonymous201...

mergi la sectiunea sell si vinzi

justshift

13d ago

@justshift

dupa mergi la vithdrav si da i copy paste la o adresa de primere de usdc pe reteaua Polygon

Why can't I buy??? I want to profit from my own country's mistakes!!

Davide0440

13d ago

@WhatIsGoingO...

you need to bet at least 1$

@Davide0440

it says US is in the restricted countries list

Tip me for a good luck spell from my spell book

onafets

onafets

15d ago

For the first time in its history, Moodys has downgraded the credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA1.

mekanical

13d ago

@onafets

Long overdue, but the rating downgrade is supportive of lower interest rates, which will be supportive of q3 & q4 GDP numbers (q2 gdp is already a lock for positive).

doomer7860

11d ago

@mekanical

No is so free u understand

onafets

onafets

15d ago

Moody's strips the U.S. government of top credit rating, saying presidents and lawmakers have failed to reverse rising debts.

thisispaul

16d ago

why cant i export the historical prices?

Lazertuiyope

Lazertuiyope

16d ago

is this the freeest money in the world ?

Bloomberg’s Augusta Saraiva: “US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.”

Crazykekbr

Crazykekbr

17d ago

For those betting on NO. Just check the top holder of Yes.

mekanical

17d ago

@Crazykekbr

Looks like hes down more than 15k on this bet. Can't win em all. Once we get the positive q2 print i would be surprused if this market stayed above 25%.

@Crazykekbr

The top yes holder is literally a well known scammer whose only claim to fame is having a good model for predicting temperature markets lol

TIP-JAR-GUY

NO TO THE MOON, economy will boom soon

Davide0440

17d ago

Don't worry guys! Buy more No's! https://x.com/Barchart/status/1922822363617415236

KnureKnume

18d ago

I think everyone should buy YES. Trump is doing a very bad job and the U.S will be in a Great Depression very soon!!!!

Joran

18d ago

How does the bet resolve if they say something like partial or minor recession?

Davide0440

17d ago

@Joran

it's still a recession

Morra

Morra

18d ago

It's not about predicting the future; it's about seeing the patterns. Q1 GDP already dipped negative. Tariffs are a lead weight on growth. Consumer confidence? Rock bottom. Manufacturing is shrinking. The dominos are already falling. Buying YES isn't a gamble; it's acknowledging the inevitable

Davide0440

19d ago

The US is heading for a default !! This is free money for everybody with eyes on the DATA https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1922352190812774897

KnureKnume

19d ago

FREE MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!

TedKazinsky

TedKazinsky

18d ago

@PowerOfAntichrist gay

pompidom

18d ago

@youregodamnr...

Yup he talks too much about dick and butt. Should have known that anyone wearing that robe was gay.

KnureKnume

19d ago

PowerOfAntichrist is the type of loser that you can’t even believe could exist. Lives a meaningless life and is desperate for any attention, but nobody will give it to him as he has no positive human traits. He screams out "please someone listen to me" nobody does. He now finds himself on one of the few places on the internet where no matter how worthless you are, the website will not ban you. His comments are ignored over and over. "maybe this is the one that will make someone pay attention to me" he thinks but to no avail. BUT, we have a solution. Just like in every other avenue in his worthless life, we can press the holders square, and this piece of human dog shit disappears forever. He is the perfect example of failed parenting. If you choose to make babies, it is your responsibility to make sure that they are not so ugly and repulsive that this behavior is their only outlet. So in conclusion… ugly stupid people, you have to stop having sex.

Amount

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