Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

$2,199,965 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025

0123456789
0123456789
% chance
0%20%40%60%80%100%

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Rules

Additional context

Updated Apr 14

Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran between February 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Volume

$2,199,965

End Date

Dec 31, 2025

shield

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

GItanoPro

1d ago

Iran has hacked Trump’s emails. If Trump wants to stop them from being released, the most likely path is for the U.S. and Iran to reach some sort of agreement. It just happened. Still cheap.

johnnycm

johnnycm

3d ago

Better not go into this market. It will also be manipulated for the whales profit. Aenews (50pence) and his dick succking friends

Policarpo

3d ago

@johnnycm

how do I identify aenews betters?

kalipendeja

@johnnycm

HAKAJSJD

GG

efesis

3d ago

Don't bet on this site. It's all a scam. Despite many entities, including an official Polymarket account, declaring it a suit, it still seems as though the market may resolve to claim that 'No." https://protos.com/zelenskyy-suit-polymarket-dispute/

Bruh

WhaleSharkdodododo

Hey guys, be cautious! Polymarket is totally rigged. Whales can twist the rules to favor their side. Look at the Fordow market: no official IAEA statement yet, but it can still resolve as "Yes." They have absolute UMA voting power to control the outcome.

hs84640

4d ago

@WhaleSharkdo...

Why you only stating that it says it must be IAEA statement obviously you’re just mad. Rules say general concession

WAR-ACTIVIST

WAR-ACTIVIST

4d ago

people have no idea whats about to hit them.

PandaTime

4d ago

@WAR-ACTIVIST

Like your profit falling $30k in a month

50cents

4d ago

What will you do if "YES" wins, but big whales on UMA vote for NO and pocket the profits? Impossible? There’s no democracy in UMA, no one-person-one-vote; big players control the outcome. So if Republicans win, UMA can say Democrats did - and vice versa. If Real beats Barca, UMA can claim the opposite. In the long run, this will kill UMA and Polymarket. Who’d leave money in a casino where the croupier calls black “red” when the ball lands? That’s exactly what happened on this market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july?tid=1751200685807

#UMAout polymarket allows manipulation on markets do not let them get away with it. Check this thread out https://feedback.polymarket.com/en/p/uma-trying-to-scam-a-market-zelensky-wore-a-suit It could happen to you next, dont let this slide

U have the link?

rrru

5d ago

i think no

OneT

5d ago

Any day now Trump could post on X that they’ve made a deal.

Mr.Frog🐸

The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/us-iran-talks-nuclear-program

Bull23

Bull23

6d ago

@Mr.Frog🐸

ddgdggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggdggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg

eeromakinen

eeromakinen

7d ago

Trump administration is said to have comversations with iranians about giving up to $30B for Iranian civil nuclear program. Wtf Trump, but that sounds like a deal about nuclears.

eeromakinen

eeromakinen

7d ago

nacht

nacht

7d ago

@eeromakinen

Iranians already refused. No chance for that.

Just announced trump has meeting with Iran tomorrow

JTitor777

JTitor777

8d ago

Any day now Trump could post on X that they’ve made a deal.

Greyo

Greyo

8d ago

@JTitor777

Read the rules before betting.

Suh88

5d ago

@Greyo

No need. It's going to be like Iran X Israel ceasefire Trump tweets boom yes

Nuclear deal next week -Witcoff

Greyo

Greyo

8d ago

@xvdsdcadsfds

next week are july man lol

Porx

Porx

9d ago

Trump: Not Sure We Need Iran Deal At All

@Porx

The talks are still happening.. they might come off a deal with it or not but i think the fair value of this market is 50/50 because the talks and the decision will occur before the end of August

Chaggail

9d ago

Trump just said he will meet with the Iranians next week.

yasinyzp

9d ago

There is a deal behind the doors

0xFe35

9d ago

JESUSISMYLORD

The event presently carries a plausible probability in the range of 5 to 15 percent. This likelihood remains fluid and may fluctuate in response to shifts in the prevailing political climate.

JESUSISMYLORD

@JESUSISMYLOR...

My estimate is primarily based on the nature of Iran’s degenerative Islamic dictatorship a regime whose core functions seem to revolve around marrying off children and staging public executions of "infidels" and women. Frankly, it's a minor miracle they’ve managed to enrich anything at all under such absurd conditions. Given the sheer dysfunction of the system, I assign a 5 to 15 percent chance that a deal might actually go through. Under bombardment, sanctions, and all manner of external pressure, they’d likely just declare victory on state TV as they tend to do and call it a day. Who knows, maybe someone will offer them some women and shiny trinkets like they do with certain African warlords, and they’ll take the bait. Honestly, I have serious doubts about the regime’s political capacity. In a halfway competent state, such a deal would be off the table entirely.

JESUSISMYLORD

On June 23, 2025, the relevant committee of the Iranian parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. This includes stopping cameras, inspections, and reporting until the safety of nuclear facilities is guaranteed. On June 25, 2025, the full parliament supported the bill with 221 votes out of 223. It was then sent to the Guardian Council. It will become law only after their approval. In summary, Iran will officially suspend cooperation with the IAEA and halt the inspection regime in the coming days.

JESUSISMYLORD

@JESUSISMYLOR...

https://www.ft.com/content/b822152b-d0a4-4bff-83d5-a79afd88314e

basedboy

9d ago

any tippers before ww3? im broke af 😭

Fena

9d ago

A ceasefire deal is not a nuclear deal. Trump is not going to put forth a deal that Iran will agree to.

ChalavYishmael

9d ago

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/flashes/660910

ChalavYishmael

9d ago

Interesting.

JESUSISMYLORD

According to statements by the US president, they won the war and destroyed Iran's nuclear program. If the main party, the US, believes the nuclear program is destroyed, then why make a deal? Think about that

Iran doesn't have a nuclear program anymore, therefore there will not be a new nuclear deal.

0xFe35

10d ago

@nothingeverh...

I don't think Israel and US actions were ever about the nuclear program anyway. So this was always a no since day one.

@nothingeverh...

they almost certainly do.

Gusarich

10d ago

worth it

tradewar

tradewar

10d ago

freemoney @ yes

Guys, in my opinion, after ceasefire is done, the next setp would be nuclear deal. Am I wrong?

Who tryna eat my booty after this yes hits

Chappy69

Chappy69

10d ago

This is an easy yes

ChinaBoy

ChinaBoy

10d ago

Must be yes

FabulousCar

FabulousCar

10d ago

bibi just affirmed the ceasefire

Car

Car

10d ago

its happening

triboon

10d ago

ceasefire coming, talks will resume, chances they will strike a deal before august are pretty high tbh

it's still @ 5 cents lol

JTitor777

JTitor777

10d ago

Deal-maker in chief ;)

Amount

$