Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.
Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran between February 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Iran has hacked Trump’s emails. If Trump wants to stop them from being released, the most likely path is for the U.S. and Iran to reach some sort of agreement. It just happened. Still cheap.
Don't bet on this site. It's all a scam. Despite many entities, including an official Polymarket account, declaring it a suit, it still seems as though the market may resolve to claim that 'No." https://protos.com/zelenskyy-suit-polymarket-dispute/
Hey guys, be cautious! Polymarket is totally rigged. Whales can twist the rules to favor their side. Look at the Fordow market: no official IAEA statement yet, but it can still resolve as "Yes." They have absolute UMA voting power to control the outcome.
What will you do if "YES" wins, but big whales on UMA vote for NO and pocket the profits? Impossible? There’s no democracy in UMA, no one-person-one-vote; big players control the outcome. So if Republicans win, UMA can say Democrats did - and vice versa. If Real beats Barca, UMA can claim the opposite. In the long run, this will kill UMA and Polymarket. Who’d leave money in a casino where the croupier calls black “red” when the ball lands? That’s exactly what happened on this market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july?tid=1751200685807
The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/us-iran-talks-nuclear-program
Trump administration is said to have comversations with iranians about giving up to $30B for Iranian civil nuclear program. Wtf Trump, but that sounds like a deal about nuclears.
The talks are still happening.. they might come off a deal with it or not but i think the fair value of this market is 50/50 because the talks and the decision will occur before the end of August
The event presently carries a plausible probability in the range of 5 to 15 percent. This likelihood remains fluid and may fluctuate in response to shifts in the prevailing political climate.
My estimate is primarily based on the nature of Iran’s degenerative Islamic dictatorship a regime whose core functions seem to revolve around marrying off children and staging public executions of "infidels" and women. Frankly, it's a minor miracle they’ve managed to enrich anything at all under such absurd conditions. Given the sheer dysfunction of the system, I assign a 5 to 15 percent chance that a deal might actually go through. Under bombardment, sanctions, and all manner of external pressure, they’d likely just declare victory on state TV as they tend to do and call it a day. Who knows, maybe someone will offer them some women and shiny trinkets like they do with certain African warlords, and they’ll take the bait. Honestly, I have serious doubts about the regime’s political capacity. In a halfway competent state, such a deal would be off the table entirely.
On June 23, 2025, the relevant committee of the Iranian parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. This includes stopping cameras, inspections, and reporting until the safety of nuclear facilities is guaranteed. On June 25, 2025, the full parliament supported the bill with 221 votes out of 223. It was then sent to the Guardian Council. It will become law only after their approval. In summary, Iran will officially suspend cooperation with the IAEA and halt the inspection regime in the coming days.
According to statements by the US president, they won the war and destroyed Iran's nuclear program. If the main party, the US, believes the nuclear program is destroyed, then why make a deal? Think about that
Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.
Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.
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