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00:00We've been recommending clients buy the CME, LME, copper ARB now for a couple of months. Wider and wider? Yeah, wider and wider. We've made the recommendation about 6%. It's now around 20 towards the end of the year. It is probably going to be 25. I mean, Trump's already said mooted the 25 and it's on the list. So, I mean, I think stepping back from it, the impact of tariffs, whether it's copper or precious metals, even oil to some degree have been surprisingly bullish so far. Physical markets have tightened across. precious metals, copper. There's been pre buying in the US. Scrap markets tighten up dramatically in the US and China's, you know stockpiling dollar based large dollar based commodities. So you know the big surprise I think this year for us has been that tariffs have been super bullish to date . There must be a point at which you get to where the price is so great in America that it has an economic effect. Copper is pretty fundamentally important to pretty much everything that is happening right now. Yeah, if we get substitution, presumably we do. There must be some of that already starting possibly that carries on. How self-limiting will this be? Sure. I mean, the US is a big consumption market, you know, big. They're going to keep a lot more scrap at home. That's going to be one of the benefits of this. So the US is a big pool of scrap aluminium and it sets up to manage that. Asia. Yeah, well not now, but that's with this kind of tariff, with this kind of 25% tariff, the incentive will be there to build out the scrap industry. And you know, in our numbers the US can increase its kind of self-sufficiency from about a third in copper to two thirds within the next 12 to 24 months. It's it's it's possible, you know, with this kind of incentive on the demand side, it's not going to be great, right? The headlines so far, it's been bullish because of the stocking, because of the pre buying, because of the scrap tightening. But all of that unwinds in the next 3 to 6 months when the tariffs actually happen.

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What Impact Could Trump Tariffs Have on Copper Markets?

Citi Global Head of Commodities Research Max Layton discusses the impact of potential import tariffs from US President Donald Trump's administration on copper markets. He speaks on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

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