Bloomberg Opinion

A short Bloomberg Opinion vid on how Mark Zuckerberg (and other tech companies) are treating the Silicon Valley start-up ecosystem like a big farm* team for their AI talents, now that buying companies is too difficult and slow. (*Apparently this is what Americans call "feeder" teams. Strange country, honestly.) Read my full column here (gift link): https://lnkd.in/eEB2_f_d

Fifty years ago, it seemed like such a good idea. At the initiative of the West German and French leaders, the six leading industrialized democracies convened their first regular meeting to manage a troubled world — problems included the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the oil shocks and stagflation. They later became the Group of Seven, then briefly 8, then 7 again. But as this club concludes its latest summit in the Canadian Rockies by defining success merely as avoiding a rage quit by the American guest, one wonders: What’s the point anymore? The world is on fire from eastern Europe to the Middle East and beyond, and the G-7 leaders are at odds over how to analyze, let alone solve, any of these conflicts. French President Emmanuel Macron and others want Israel to desist from further escalation against Iran. US President Donald Trump may not have wanted Israel to attack Iran while his own envoy was trying to negotiate a deal with Tehran, but now that the war is underway he seems fine with Israel finishing the job. Macron also intends to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state. By contrast, Trump’s ambassador to Israel told Bloomberg that the US no longer believes in a two-state solution, not even in the long term. The discord over the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has even deeper roots. Trump promised to end it in a single day but, five months into his second term, has all but walked away from even trying. The blame belongs to Russian President Vladimir Putin (who once was the 8th summiteer in the group, until he was kicked out for annexing parts of Ukraine in 2014). Putin shows no interest in good-faith negotiations and adroitly strings Trump along — the two just had another call, after which Trump even suggested (to Macron’s horror) that Putin might mediate the Israel-Iran showdown. As Trump wavers in supporting Ukraine, the Europeans understand that they need to step up; they are urging much harsher sanctions against Russia. In that demand, they have backers in the US Congress, even among Republicans. But Trump, so far, has other instincts. That’s hardly a secret to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who does not represent a G-7 nation but is again on the guest list, along with leaders from the Global South such as South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa. Both men were recently humiliated by Trump in reality-TV-inspired ambushes at the White House — Trump in effect accused his South African guest of presiding over genocide against White Afrikaners. The host, Canada’s Mark Carney, survived his own visit to the White House relatively unscathed but owes his election largely to his promise to Canadians to resist one of Trump’s most outlandish taunts: his repeated threat to annex Canada as America’s 51st state.... (Read the whole column with this GIFT link: https://bit.ly/3TfT577 ) Bloomberg Opinion

TikTok may have banned #SkinnyTok, but influencers pushing a "disciplined" lifestyle are keeping the restrictive eating trend alive. How can we police pro-ED content that’s cloaked in euphemisms like “wellness” and “self-care”? Find out more in my latest Bloomberg Opinion column with Lisa Jarvis: https://lnkd.in/eyqCja7t

In business as in politics, one of the worst things you can do is expose yourself as a flip-flopper. And this Pride Month is shaping up to reveal a record number of corporate wafflers. A long list of companies have all declined to renew or scaled back their corporate sponsorships of Pride events and marches this year. Some have even opted out of the relatively benign and inexpensive move of rainbow-ifying their corporate logos. The corporatization of Pride has always been a tricky thing. Most people are not under the illusion that a company jumping on the Pride bandwagon is a sign that it cares deeply about the rights of the LGBTQ community. Rather, it’s a business decision that marketing to and embracing LGBTQ people is more profitable than the alternative. Some view this as exploitative and pandering, others see it as normalizing the queer community by turning it into just another marketable demographic like everyone else. But now management teams think it’s a better business decision to risk upsetting LGBTQ customers and employees than potentially anger a contingent of the right and the Trump administration. I’m not sure that’s so true in the long run, however. If companies jumped into Pride for good business reasons, it seems now they’re exiting based on vibes rather than data. My latest for Bloomberg Opinion. https://lnkd.in/eDTSsUSz

Banks and private equity are fighting over kids again. JPMorgan and Apollo have reached a truce for now, but what's the best long-term way to share the costs of the Wall Street boot camp that juniors get? Maybe treat them like footballers. Read more at Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/eCTQaDBe

NO PAYWALL: The world is raining on Donald Trump’s parade. That’s not only the meteorological forecast — the president’s caudillo-style military spectacle in Washington on his (and the army’s) birthday, Jun. 14, may be a downer owing to bad weather. It’s also the case metaphorically, now that Israel has started attacking Iran, possibly causing another war or even, in the worst case, drawing in the United States and ruining Trump’s foreign policy. The launch orders given by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu are awkward for Trump and the US at many levels. First, Trump keeps claiming that all the wars that broke out under his predecessor, Joe Biden, would never have happened on his watch, because he, Trump, is so strong and universally respected. Well, here is a close US ally, Bibi, ignoring Trump’s wishes just as he disregarded Biden’s and igniting yet another conflagration. Moreover, Trump wants to leave a legacy as a masterful dealmaker and to earn a Nobel Peace Prize for being a “peacemaker.” Since the Russian president keeps snubbing his efforts at ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine, Trump’s best hope for success was negotiating new limits on Iran’s nuclear program. (As of this writing, the next round of talks between Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the Iranians was still slated to take place in Oman on Sunday.) Now an American victory at the negotiating table is hard to imagine. How could Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, make major concessions to the Americans while his regime is being battered by America’s main ally in the region? Trump’s nightmare scenario is that instead of making peace he’ll end up fighting yet another Middle-Eastern war, exactly what he promised his MAGA base to keep the US out of. That could happen if the Iranians retaliate not only against Israel but also against US bases in the region, where about 40,000 American services members are stationed. (The US started bringing some of them to safety before the strikes began.) Marco Rubio, Trump’s secretary of state and also national security advisor, already warned Tehran to leave US assets alone; Iran may heed his advice, since it has no interest in drawing in the world’s mightiest military. Not so Bibi, who would love to fight alongside the US. After all, the US has many things that Israel lacks, including the bunker-busters that could take out uranium centrifuges buried deep inside Iranian mountains. As Iran retaliates against Israel, we should expect Netanyahu and pro-Bibi Jewish lobbies in the US to press Trump to intervene. Trump was hoping to avoid that test. He can’t be seen to abandon Israel to its fate, nor to be maneuvered by Bibi into a war he doesn’t want.... (Read the whole column, no paywall) Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/exBpf2sv

REACTION COLUMN: The oil market is pushing its luck. For two years, it’s weathered unthinkable events, including volleys of direct attacks and counterattacks between Israel and Iran. Yet not a single barrel of production has been lost. With hindsight, every oil-price rally has proven to be an opportunity to sell. It required nerves of steel, but shorting crude while bombs and the missiles were flying was the winning trade. The situation appears the same today after Israel launched a wide-scale attack against Iran, including its nuclear facilities, and Tehran warned of a “harsh” retaliation. Amid the chaos, the barrels are still flowing. Everywhere in the Middle East, oilfields were buzzing and tankers were loading on Friday. If anything, there’s still too much oil in the physical market, and prices, based solely on today’s supply and demand fundamentals, should retreat. But familiarity breeds contempt: the threat of a major oil Middle East shock is alarmingly high. Bloomberg Opinion #oil #Iran #Israel

There are three immediate questions to answer about the war that Israel has started with Iran, all of which lead to the most important of all: Can this achieve Israel’s stated goal of ensuring, once and for all, that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon? But rather than destroy or even delay Iran’s emergence as a nuclear power, Israel's war risks bringing it closer, says Marc Champion. Read the column: https://lnkd.in/eD4XTvjp 📷️: RONEN ZVULUN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Climate change is making waves and tides more powerful and destructive, meaning you don’t need massive sea level rise or hurricanes to get expensive coastal damage. In some places it’s already happening every year My column for @opinion.bloomberg.com https://lnkd.in/e-28QKmr

Free to read! Hong Kong dollar’s trading band of 7.75-7.85 per dollar has been around for 20 years. Is it time to tweak the band? My latest for Bloomberg Opinion