Bloomberg Opinion

NO PAYWALL: The world is raining on Donald Trump’s parade. That’s not only the meteorological forecast — the president’s caudillo-style military spectacle in Washington on his (and the army’s) birthday, Jun. 14, may be a downer owing to bad weather. It’s also the case metaphorically, now that Israel has started attacking Iran, possibly causing another war or even, in the worst case, drawing in the United States and ruining Trump’s foreign policy. The launch orders given by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu are awkward for Trump and the US at many levels. First, Trump keeps claiming that all the wars that broke out under his predecessor, Joe Biden, would never have happened on his watch, because he, Trump, is so strong and universally respected. Well, here is a close US ally, Bibi, ignoring Trump’s wishes just as he disregarded Biden’s and igniting yet another conflagration. Moreover, Trump wants to leave a legacy as a masterful dealmaker and to earn a Nobel Peace Prize for being a “peacemaker.” Since the Russian president keeps snubbing his efforts at ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine, Trump’s best hope for success was negotiating new limits on Iran’s nuclear program. (As of this writing, the next round of talks between Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the Iranians was still slated to take place in Oman on Sunday.) Now an American victory at the negotiating table is hard to imagine. How could Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, make major concessions to the Americans while his regime is being battered by America’s main ally in the region? Trump’s nightmare scenario is that instead of making peace he’ll end up fighting yet another Middle-Eastern war, exactly what he promised his MAGA base to keep the US out of. That could happen if the Iranians retaliate not only against Israel but also against US bases in the region, where about 40,000 American services members are stationed. (The US started bringing some of them to safety before the strikes began.) Marco Rubio, Trump’s secretary of state and also national security advisor, already warned Tehran to leave US assets alone; Iran may heed his advice, since it has no interest in drawing in the world’s mightiest military. Not so Bibi, who would love to fight alongside the US. After all, the US has many things that Israel lacks, including the bunker-busters that could take out uranium centrifuges buried deep inside Iranian mountains. As Iran retaliates against Israel, we should expect Netanyahu and pro-Bibi Jewish lobbies in the US to press Trump to intervene. Trump was hoping to avoid that test. He can’t be seen to abandon Israel to its fate, nor to be maneuvered by Bibi into a war he doesn’t want.... (Read the whole column, no paywall) Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/exBpf2sv

REACTION COLUMN: The oil market is pushing its luck. For two years, it’s weathered unthinkable events, including volleys of direct attacks and counterattacks between Israel and Iran. Yet not a single barrel of production has been lost. With hindsight, every oil-price rally has proven to be an opportunity to sell. It required nerves of steel, but shorting crude while bombs and the missiles were flying was the winning trade. The situation appears the same today after Israel launched a wide-scale attack against Iran, including its nuclear facilities, and Tehran warned of a “harsh” retaliation. Amid the chaos, the barrels are still flowing. Everywhere in the Middle East, oilfields were buzzing and tankers were loading on Friday. If anything, there’s still too much oil in the physical market, and prices, based solely on today’s supply and demand fundamentals, should retreat. But familiarity breeds contempt: the threat of a major oil Middle East shock is alarmingly high. Bloomberg Opinion #oil #Iran #Israel

There are three immediate questions to answer about the war that Israel has started with Iran, all of which lead to the most important of all: Can this achieve Israel’s stated goal of ensuring, once and for all, that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon? But rather than destroy or even delay Iran’s emergence as a nuclear power, Israel's war risks bringing it closer, says Marc Champion. Read the column: https://lnkd.in/eD4XTvjp 📷️: RONEN ZVULUN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Climate change is making waves and tides more powerful and destructive, meaning you don’t need massive sea level rise or hurricanes to get expensive coastal damage. In some places it’s already happening every year My column for @opinion.bloomberg.com https://lnkd.in/e-28QKmr

Free to read! Hong Kong dollar’s trading band of 7.75-7.85 per dollar has been around for 20 years. Is it time to tweak the band? My latest for Bloomberg Opinion

For longstanding critics of “rainbow capitalism,” a term referring to businesses that use imagery and language to appeal to #LGBTQ shoppers like me during #PrideMonth, the decline in corporate support is unsurprising, writes Michael Arceneaux for Bloomberg Opinion. The recent rollback only confirms suspicions that many companies never genuinely cared that much for queer and trans people. Nonetheless, it’s still hurtful to see the shift, particularly at a time when queer and trans people face political and social challenges. Companies should be called out. But this should also be seen as an opportunity for the LGBTQ community to remember its history of challenging inequities — and to recognize how vital that role continues to be. Read more with this gift link: https://bit.ly/45SavOq

Elon Musk issued his strongest sign of contrition yet over his handling of the dramatic break with Donald Trump. “I regret some of my posts about President [Trump] last week,” Musk posted Wednesday on X. “They went too far.” But making nice with Trump won’t fix the fact that too much now hangs on June’s robotaxi launch, says Liam Denning. Read what’s at stake: https://lnkd.in/ewnt6xsM

Tesla's stock has made back virtually all of last Thursday's slump when Elon Musk was laying into President Trump online. Ostensibly, investors are relieved at Musk's profession of "regret" and a brief clip of a purported robotaxi on a street in Austin. Two things. First, Musk may be trying to make nice, but I would venture what you really want from a CEO is the ability to control their impulse to pick a needless fight with the US president in the first place. Second, the robotaxi clip is only thrilling if you ignore Musk's years of promises about unleashing millions of self-driving Teslas everywhere at once. Even the new launch date of June 22 is described as 'tentative' by the man himself. Read my take on the relief rally here at Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/e6YBbRK3

As Jamie Dimon to David Solomon to Mark Zuckerberg crack down on naysayers, it's becoming clear that quashing dissent is the next step in the CEO playbook for re-exerting authority after a pandemic that shifted power into the hands of workers. But there are good reasons that everyone, and especially CEOs, should not just tolerate dissenters but encourage them. 🔗 Read my Bloomberg Opinion column on why dissent has value even when it's wrong, and how it changes our opinions — even if we don't acknowledge or realize it. https://lnkd.in/epDRUNcp 📽 Or watch the tl;dr video version: