Trump Doesn’t Always Chicken Out
If there’s a model for hope now, it may lie in how quickly the 1991 Gulf War ended.
Take a little TACO money off the table.
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Trump didn’t chicken out this time. As the US attempt to obliterate Iran’s nuclear sites ratchets up geopolitical tensions, the next critical question in the game of chicken is what the Islamic Republic does to retaliate. Its parliament has already voted to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply flows. If the country were to go through with that — and parliament doesn’t make the decision — then risk will climb higher. Prediction markets think it will probably happen: