Tom Orlik - Bloomberg

The Big Take

Putin Going to War With NATO Would Cost World $1.5 Trillion

The NATO chief says Russia may be ready for an attack on eastern Europe within five years. Bloomberg Economics ran the numbers on what that would mean.

In View

What Mike Tyson and the Bond Market Can Teach Trump on Debt

Treasury buyers will be the ultimate arbiters on whether MAGA math adds up.

Economics

The Problem With the Fed Isn’t Independence, It’s Accountability

Monetary policy is too technical to be left to the politicians and too political to be left to the technocrats.

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Tariffs Leave Economists Fixated on One Word: Stagflation

Americans should brace for a toxic combination of weak growth and high prices.

In View

China Learned to Embrace What the US Forgot: The Virtues of Creative Destruction

In Beijing, competition is in. In Washington, not so much.

Next Chapter

Why The China Bubble Still Hasn’t Popped

Changes in the Chinese economy signal evolution, not collapse.

In View

Centrist Politicians Don’t Get That Immigration Is Like Trade

Stressing the economic benefits while ignoring the costs was not a winning electoral strategy in 2024.

The Year Ahead 2025

Trump Agenda Won’t Hurt Global Economy as Much Next Year as in 2026

Promised overhaul of conventional wisdom on trade, debt and security won’t happen overnight.

The Big Take

Your Guide to Trump’s Day-One Agenda — From Taxes to Tariffs

Emboldened by his triumph, the president-elect will enter the White House in January ready to make good on these MAGA campaign promises.

Economics

The World’s Central Banks Aren’t Following the Fed’s Lead Anymore

Diverging paths on interest rates are a sign that America’s global influence is diminishing.

Economics

Higher Fences for Trade Will Mean More Debt And Slower Growth

How three scenarios for international cooperation—from a second Cold War to a return of go-go globalization—would change the world economy.

Economics

Who Loses in Trump’s Endless Trade War? Not Just China

Politicians are overselling the effectiveness of tariffs while underselling the costs to American businesses and households.

Bloomberg Originals

How Central Banks Won the Battle But Lost the War

In this Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary, we explain why managing inflation in the future may be more of a team sport.

Economics

War With North Korea Would Kill Millions, Cost World $4 Trillion

South Korea is a semiconductor factory built on top of a geopolitical fault line. War is a very low probability. If it does break out, the human and economic cost would be devastating

In View

The Future Belongs to American Companies, Not Necessarily to Americans

The AI revolution is lifting the market value of US businesses, but history tells us it may not do the same for workers.

In View

Independence Without Accountability: The Fed’s Great Inflation Fail

One key takeaway from the spike in prices is that controlling inflation needs to be more of a team sport.

The Big Take

End of China’s Boom Years Risks Political Peril for Xi

Unlike his reform-era predecessors, Xi Jinping can’t count on rapid gains in prosperity to underpin support for Communist Party rule.

Remarks

A Resilient Global Economy Masks Growing Debt and Inequality

The world appears to have dodged a downturn, but wars and economic nationalism are leaving many countries worse off.

Bloomberg Originals

Why the Cost of Money Is About to Go Up

It’s been headed down for decades, but the most important price in the global economy is changing direction. Bloomberg Originals explains why.

General Views of Taiwan's Offshore Outpost Kinmen Island

The Big Take

Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan

Taiwan’s election highlights the potential for a conflict that would decimate the global economy.