Bloomberg Opinion

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is expected to fire members of the critical US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) for being too “woke." The independent panel of volunteer experts in primary care has significant influence over the practice of medicine and access to care in the US. Dismantling the advisory panel would be a disastrous blow to Americans’ health. The group’s focus is on the complex science of prevention and constantly evolving evidence-based medicine. That’s why already overworked doctors rely on the task force for expert guidance. Read more about why this panel's work is so critical in my latest for Bloomberg Opinion (gift link): https://lnkd.in/gQvT68Qd

What makes an economy strong? In my latest column, I talk about my state of Texas. Texas is booming! It has better economic growth, population growth, and unemployment rates than the US overall. And that boom isn't an accident or luck. Texas has a history of forward-looking economic strategy. For a long time, the Texas economy was reliant on the boom-and-bust of the oil and gas industry, great coattails to ride in good times but a deep source of vulnerability and weakness. In response, the Texas economy was diversified and transformed into both a titan of an exporter as well as a favored locale for corporate relocation. In the piece, I argue that Texas needs to draw on this history and commit to fighting its current vulnerability and weakness: low incomes and poverty. Even after adjusting for cost-of-living and the fact that the state doesn't have an income tax, Texas has lower income than the US economy overall and almost always has. It also has higher poverty rates, compounded with low credit scores, high rates of uninsurance, high bankruptcy filings, high loan delinquencies, and a poor track record of enrolling residents in public programs that they are eligible for. Its robust growth isn't translating into economic security for Texans. The low income and economic security of residents is this era's version of the oil and gas reliance: it's a weakness that needs to be addressed. If Texas is going to stay one of the strongest economies in the US, it can't rest on its laurels. https://lnkd.in/eZ_UaXdy

Union Pacific announced an agreement to acquire Norfolk Southern in a rail deal valued at $72 billion. The deal faces an uphill battle for approval from the Surface Transportation Board, the rail regulator, which will use an untested criteria for judging the merits of the merger. Veteran railroader Jim Vena, the CEO of Union Pacific, is probably the best pitchman to convince the STB that the transaction will meet the new criteria of enhancing competition. Vena, who is a disciple of railroading legend Hunter Harrison, right now has Union Pacific running as smoothly as a railroad can. Union Pacific has even been increasing the freight it hauls, which will be one of the keys for pushing the acquisition over the finish line in an industry that hasn't grown railcar volume in the last 20 years. Read more in my latest column: https://lnkd.in/gR_s3kQa

Take away weather forecasters’ secret weapon just before the peak of hurricane season? What could go wrong? My video for Bloomberg Opinion will tell you what. And so will my free column: https://lnkd.in/emgiE7JT

Another big trade deal with implications for US automakers. But not the deal Detroit is looking for. As with the Japan deal, the new US trade agreement (such as it is) levies 15% tariffs on European auto exports. And as with the Japan deal, that is largely irrelevant to the likes of GM and Ford, who are overwhelmingly focused on producing the heavier vehicles that are favored in the US but are less desirable in overseas markets. What really matters for them is a deal to reduce tariffs and a cloud of uncertainty over their Canadian and Mexican operations. Surely they will get a better deal than European and Japanese rivals? Read about it here at Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/eiZum5yR

How long will Google be allowed to benefit from its monopolistic AI scraping? That's the subject of my Bloomberg Opinion column today. Google forces publishers to remain open to being scraped for AI Overviews if they want to remain findable on Google Search at all. Data from Pew Research Center and Press Gazette have highlighted the dramatic impact AI Overviews is having on traffic to the source material. With the courts currently deciding the acceptable remedies for Google's prior illegal anti-competitive behavior, this is one obvious place to start: disallowing Google from unfairly leveraging its search dominance to boost its AI products. Read it here (gift link for Linkedin followers): https://lnkd.in/eDVbKMZi #ai #google #AIOverviews

Does US President Donald Trump have a strategy in foreign affairs? I don’t mean a slogan, such as “peace through strength” or America First. Nor do I mean mere instinct, such as hitting weak adversaries (the Houthis, say, or Iran) while ducking from confrontations that look more dangerous (with Russia, say). I’m talking about strategy as the likes of Carl von Clausewitz thought about it: the definition of clear and big political goals, and the alignment of the available means with those ends. Some presidents have formed grand strategies with oratory and followed up with policy. James Monroe, Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan were among the eponyms of the resulting “doctrines.” Others relied on formal documents, especially since legislation in 1986 mandated an annual report to Congress called a National Security Strategy. (Annual it was only until 2000; then it became periodic, and now occasional.) John Bolton, one of the national security advisors in Trump’s first term, told me that ideally “the first thing you do is write the National Security Strategy, then you write the National Defense Strategy under that. And in theory, somewhere at the State Department, they’re writing the diplomatic strategy.” Other strategies — for missiles, nukes and so forth — then derive from the master vision. It should all fit together. No National Security Strategy seems to be in the works, though.1That may be owing to turmoil in the National Security Council, now run by an overstretched Marco Rubio, who is simultaneously leading the State Department, and who has shrunk the Council at the cost of valuable expertise. It may also have to do with the inscrutability of his boss’s thinking on strategy, if he thinks about it at all. Instead, the Pentagon seems to be taking the intellectual lead with a National Defense Strategy now being drafted and slated to be published this fall. The leader behind the effort is Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Colby is known for his conviction that the United States is overstretched and must prioritize, by gradually pulling forces out of Europe, the Middle East and the Korean peninsula and shifting all available resources to the Indo-Pacific in preparation for a coming mega-clash with China.... (Read the whole column with this GIFT LINK) Bloomberg Opinion https://bit.ly/4lRVa5N

Succession planning for the chairs of FTSE-100 constituents needs more scrutiny. Regulatory and cultural constraints may be narrowing the field of candidates, such that the index risks becoming a retirement home for past CEOs of UK companies. bp, HSBC and Prudential plc are the most recent firms to grapple with the challenge. For more, read my latest column for Bloomberg Opinion: https://lnkd.in/dh3W2giD

Problems are piling up for Claudia Sheinbaum my column for Bloomberg Opinion on the Mexican president's bummer summer https://lnkd.in/d7su_hsN

Defying satire, the EPA has abandoned the “E” and “P” parts of its name and dedicated itself to helping fossil fuels. Contrary to what you may have read in at least one major news source, this doesn’t have to be permanent. Gift link to my column for Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/eU_wfWSm