White House Math on Tax Bill Is Pure Imagination
The drop in debt-to-GDP in 2025 requires nothing short of an economic miracle over the next few months.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg
Every researcher knows that the quality of one’s work depends on the quality of the inputs. Start with bad data or assumptions and the result is meaningless. Take the White House’s analysis of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” winding its way through Congress; it’s pure “GIGO” — garbage in, garbage out.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s estimates say the bill would add $2.42 trillion to US budget deficits over the next decade. Not only that, but CBO projects that debt-to-gross domestic product will reach 117% in 2034 under current law, up from about 97% recently. Not so, says the White House. In its own analysis released this week, the Council of Economic Advisers estimates the bill would shrink deficits by $8.53 trillion to $11.1 trillion, and lower debt-to-GDP to 94%.