Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

$2,616,228 Vol.

Sep 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Rules

Additional context

Updated Apr 19

On April 19, Vladimir Putin announced that “guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce”. Per the rules, "humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market". Thus, an 'Easter truce’, as it has been widely reported, will not qualify, even if reciprocated by Ukraine. An extension of a humanitarian pause constituting a ceasefire may qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Volume

$2,616,228

End Date

Sep 30, 2025

Resolver

0x6A9D222616...

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

Holders

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

6h ago

They just give away my money to the corrupt Nazis in Lviv and Kiev

6h ago

Remember, never ever hapens :D

FlashFire

12h ago

A U.S. father who moved to Russia in a bid to protect his kids from LGBTQ "indoctrination" is feeling buyer's remorse after he was reportedly sent to the front lines in the invasion of Ukraine despite assurances he wouldn't see combat. Derek Huffman is a 46-year-old Texas expatriate and vlogger. He moved his wife and three kids to Russia this year seeking more "traditional values." Huffman sought Russian citizenship and joined the country's military with the expectation of non-combat work such as welding. Instead, The Daily Beast reported Friday feels he is being “thrown to the wolves” and was tricked intp being sent to the front lines. That's according to his wife, DeAnna, who asked for prayers in a video shared on Reddit.

FlashFire

12h ago

Kaliningrad is Russia’s heavily fortified enclave in the heart of NATO territory. It's strategically vital, bristling with missiles, and potentially nuclear-armed. Now, a top U.S. General says NATO could seize it in hours. How the Eastern Flank Deterrence Line, advanced AI systems like Project Maven, and new interoperable NATO weapons platforms could allow for the rapid neutralization of Kaliningrad’s defenses. But taking Kaliningrad wouldn’t just alter the security balance in Europe, it could trigger a nuclear response from Russia. From its Teutonic origins to modern militarization, why this tiny region might be the flashpoint of the next global crisis.

14h ago

It wasn't right to cancel POA he might have appeared rough and he said he would do these horrible things to me that I can't even wright here but I was living in constant fear that this brute would find me and implement his plan, that would have been just nasty don't want to think too much about it

FlashFire

14h ago

You want men's dicks. You were fantasizing. And... the word is not wright, it is write.

Fklibtards

10h ago

If poa was still roaming around these different markets. Would that give u a chub???

FlashFire

16h ago

Russia’s 41st Combined Arms Army has suffered catastrophic losses... over 27,000 troops killed, missing, or deserted according to shocking new leaked documents. Ukraine’s psychological warfare and battlefield strategy have decimated Russia’s forces near Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub and expose Putin's use of convict soldiers, the economic collapse fueled by wartime spending, and the growing instability brewing inside the Russian Federation.

20h ago

Or we could just stop supporting Nazis..

20h ago

Latvian top general visits Ukrainian Nazi headquarters: A delegation headed by the Commander-in-Chief of the National Armed Forces of the Latvian Republic, Major General Caspar Pudans, visited the Third Army Corps ( former Azov Battalion) and units of unmanned the third separate assault brigade.

FlashFire

18h ago

Latvia, another country on the border of Russia that Putin wants to steal.

FlashFire

18h ago

The Baltic countries are leaving the international treaty banning landmines so that they can landmine their borders with Russia. Putin is trash and his eventual death will be celebrated throughout the world.

FlashFire

20h ago

Russia Threatens 'Preemptive Strikes' Against NATO

1d ago

📸 🔥 - FlashFire

1d ago

🍑 🌊 🔥

FlashFire

1d ago

Russia thought it had wiped out Ukraine’s Bradley Fighting Vehicles in a massive bombing campaign, but they were dead wrong. Ukrainian forces turned the tables near Sumy’s front lines, launching a devastating counterattack with Western-supplied vehicles that forced Russian troops to retreat. Russia’s mounting equipment losses have left its soldiers advancing on bikes and foot, why its once-deadly bombing runs are now faltering, and how Ukraine’s smart use of tech and tactics is beginning to shift the balance. This is one big mistake and the heavy price Russia paid for it.

2d ago

Odessa. TCC A woman tried to pull a man out of the "bus" but she was dragged along the asphalt. ✨There is no popular resistance. They pull them out one by one like chickens in a chicken coop. And the neighbors keep sitting further. Residents of Ukraine, has no one among you wondered where your forcibly mobilized earlier fellow citizens have gone? That's right. They died at the front. Because they did not resist the busification. ✨✨ Such is the fate of a "sovereign, independent nation" who puts their trust in America.

2d ago

Body on the asphalt Be careful what you ask for She think I'm an asshole

2d ago

Ukronazis gonna Nazi

2d ago

It's no fun Scrooge should apologize or otherwise I maybe stop commenting hete

2d ago

Scrooge McNazi threatened me so I can't even express myself freely anymore

FlashFire

2d ago

That is very weak and means you're a bitch...

2d ago

Fuc* Ukrain* wit* * sic* dic*!!!

FlashFire

2d ago

Self-censorship is weakness. No real man does it...

FlashFire

2d ago

Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel, literally. Russia’s once-feared tank force has crumbled to the point of reviving 50-year-old Soviet T-72A tanks from scrapyards and storage bases. Through satellite imagery and OSINT insights, we uncover the scale of Russia’s equipment crisis, what makes these outdated tanks so vulnerable in modern warfare, and why this move signals growing desperation inside the Kremlin. With Ukraine’s advanced weaponry and smarter battlefield strategy, these ancient machines stand little chance and their return may be more of a liability than an asset.

Cooked-Vignette

2d ago

why are these two dudes schizopoasting in here to such a degree

2d ago

What's the deal with TCC kidnapping men walking their doggy and leave dog in the street

FlashFire

2d ago

Russians eat the dogs. #Poverty

2d ago

Not at all, Zelensky gets absolutely furious when he hears about cocaine being destroyed

2d ago

Russian cusrom destroyed some cocaine and next day ukrodrones attack civilians. Coincidence?

FlashFire

2d ago

Russia attacks civilians and helped Assad sell Captagon.

FlashFire

2d ago

Putin fears one thing above all: American power. Not diplomacy, not influence; raw military strength. We uncover why the Russian president goes silent when U.S. forces show up, how Zelenskyy uses that fear to push for peace, and what long-range U.S. weapons could mean for the war. From missile deals to Trump’s 50-day ultimatum, discover why America remains Putin’s greatest fear; and the key to ending the war in Ukraine.

2d ago

Stupid entitled beggars

2d ago

The Ukraine could receive up to 88 billion euros from the EU over a seven year period starting from 2028. This sum is part of a new budget plan that the European commission should examine today, according to Politico. PLZ RUSSIA DESTROY UKRAINE ASAP!!!

FlashFire

2d ago

You are literally begging... Stupid? CHECK. Entitled? CHECK. Begging? CHECK.

2d ago

Feeling confused by the new accounts that talk about Trump or republicans 24/7 here? Don't be fooled by the libtard "POA" (President of Antifa). He created these fake accounts - UnbeatableMenace, Phantom99, Bigfootz, HellKat, and FlashFire. He's been banned for over 14 times for spamming the chats. Just watch how he talks to himself with his fake accounts by posting lies about President Trump and republicans. He gives his posts "likes". That's how most of his comments have 4 likes or so. Remember he works here and gets paid for his spamming. Report the spammer and get all his accounts banned!

Fklibtards

2d ago

Would u f uck him in the a$$.?? With your meat??

2d ago

Check this chat out to see how POA ( FlashFire) tolks to himself whole day long. https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election?tid=1752707395616

FlashFire

2d ago

Azerbaijan’s patience with Russia appears to have run out. In the wake of the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crash in December 2024, which killed 38 people and was linked to Russian missile activity, President Ilham Aliyev has taken a hardline stance. Russia’s lack of accountability, followed by police brutality against ethnic Azeris in Yekaterinburg in June 2025, pushed relations to the breaking point. Events escalated with the July 1 mass arrests of Russian nationals in Baku and the shutdown of Sputnik Azerbaijan. Once close partners in trade and security, Baku and Moscow are now locked in an escalating diplomatic standoff. With over 2 million Azeris in Russia and growing ethnic tensions, this rift could reshape regional alliances and further isolate the Kremlin.

2d ago

Shut up, POA. Tell us why you are here spamming the chats 24/7? How much do you get paid for your lies? Everyone hates YOU!!!

Fklibtards

2d ago

Would u f uck him in the a$$ with your meat??

FlashFire

2d ago

"Everybody thinks" says the vatnik spewing only what the Kremlin thinks.

2d ago

Everybody thinks Ukraine should just start doing some honest work by itself and stop demanding money from us hard working people that actually work for our money.

3d ago

Before USAID hijacked Time they actually named Putin Man of the Year. Putin the OG Man of the Year!!!

3d ago

Zelensky: I'm the motherfucking MAN OF THE YEAR, deal with it.

3d ago

Mighty LAVA flood incomming. Zelensky: Go stand in the LAVA and DIE!!!

3d ago

all ivans need to kts

FlashFire

4d ago

'Russia is popping champagne': Trump brutally mocked as threat falls flat

4d ago

When russia putin attacked ukraine, he expected swift seamless and quick victory. I think we all know what happened really. Russia knows it cannot practically win over much more of ukraine, their armies and resources are drained, a ceasefire is imminent in next couple of months, if nth there will be one around christmas

FlashFire

4d ago

Another year at least.

4d ago

Kick ass vid https://youtube.com/shorts/Xq0YcUd0BgE?si=N7TVF4AsTeCPjzf7

4d ago

Hey bro happy to be on the same side on this one.

3d ago

keep sucking putin and keep dying on the russki front

4d ago

Knowing the current situation of russia where its clearly quite weakened, and where theres no practical way left for rnding the war but in a ceasefire/deal. I think the return on yes is underrated. Its v v likely that a ceasefire will happen before 2026. US also delaying sanctions on russia as they expect that to further help a deal

4d ago

Trump behavior is unpresidented. No president ever behaved this way. Therese no president.

4d ago

- Prof. Mearsheimmer

FlashFire

4d ago

Precedent... the word is precedent.

4d ago

Stupid Ukronazis give back my money!! I work for my money!!

FlashFire

4d ago

Tell it to Putin, vatnik.

3d ago

neutralize all russian nazis. neutralize the ivans

FlashFire

4d ago

Former Wagner mercenary flees Russia and seeks asylum in Finland after breaking ranks and publicly condemning the Russian military. Once hailed as a war hero by Russian state media, Yevgeny is now under investigation as a potential war criminal after crossing the border and exposing the dark truth behind Wagner’s brutal prison recruitment system and the state’s use of ex-convicts as cannon fodder in Ukraine. His story reveals the cracks in Russia's propaganda machine and the horrifying scale of human exploitation in the war, including the estimated 20,000 Wagner mercenaries killed in Bakhmut alone. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s counterintelligence service continues its shadow war by eliminating Russian FSB agents responsible for assassinations, proving Kyiv’s reach now extends deep into the Kremlin’s intelligence network. And in Washington, Donald Trump surprises the world with a dramatic 50-day ultimatum to Putin, threatening devastating tariffs and new NATO-backed arms deals unless Russia backs down. Trump’s erratic policy shift follows a brief and controversial pause in U.S. military aid to Ukraine, leaving analysts guessing whether this latest stance will stick. Get the latest on Wagner Group defectors, FSB operatives neutralized by Ukrainian forces, and Trump’s evolving strategy for the Russia-Ukraine war.