Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

$2,114,723 Vol.

Sep 30, 2025

Sep 30

Dec 31

0123456789

% chance

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Rules

Additional context

Updated Apr 19

On April 19, Vladimir Putin announced that “guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce”. Per the rules, "humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market". Thus, an 'Easter truce’, as it has been widely reported, will not qualify, even if reciprocated by Ukraine. An extension of a humanitarian pause constituting a ceasefire may qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Volume

$2,114,723

End Date

Sep 30, 2025

Resolver

0x6A9D222616...

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

Holders

Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

jsjr

2h ago

"There's one movie genre that sits above all others when it comes to deepth and profoundness. All my career has been a buildup to making a such a movie, now finally the time has come. It'll be a sequel to 'Wide Shut' and it will still star Tom Cruise. But there won't be any females in this movie, not a single fucking one." - Stanley Kubrick, 2 days before he "died" (of course, we all know he got murdered and we all know why)

13Lucky

15m ago

@jsjr

Kubrick died in 1999, just days after screening a final cut of Eyes Wide Shut (not Wide Shut) to Warner Bros. He never publicly spoke about a sequel, and certainly not one with such bizarre, exclusionary claims. The tone and language are wildly uncharacteristic of Kubrick, who was famously private, precise, and intellectual. The quote sounds like something from an internet troll or a satirical conspiracy post, not a respected filmmaker. Conspiracy theory red flag: “He didn’t die, he was murdered; and we all know why.” This is classic baseless speculation, often used to inject fake mystery or “hidden truth” vibes. There is no credible evidence that Kubrick was murdered.

13Lucky

2h ago

Russia’s Economic MELTDOWN Surpasses SOVIET-ERA Crisis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAgX_2tPKeU

13Lucky

2h ago

TRUMP SAID NO PROGRESS MADE ON PUTIN CALL. GOING TO MAKE MOVIES WITH PUTIN FOR "CULTURAL EXCHANGE." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BS_21dpSIoY

jsjr

2h ago

@13Lucky

what type of movies are they gonna make?

13Lucky

1h ago

@jsjr

If you got your way? #GayPorn

noblesse.oblige

7h ago

Slowly, then all at once.

Fkhotcaramel

3h ago

I've got a tip for u 🍆

Jaynsi

10h ago

Jewish Zelensky and his jewish team refuse compromise. Putin and his jewish team refuse compromise. Meanvile the slavic men of Russia and Ukraine are dying in unspeakable numbers. Jews finally got their revenge after a 500 year war with the slavic people.

13Lucky

2h ago

@Jaynsi

What is it like having a small dick? The rest of us non-Nazis wouldn't know.

MangKaKnorr

11h ago

You know it's bad when the NATO Chief says that they're nothing without Daddy Trump's Support

13Lucky

2h ago

@MangKaKnorr

They don't say that. Go ahead, post the quote of them saying "they are nothing without the US."

Shortbig98

11h ago

Russian propaganda said today "why is it necessary to get whole Ukraine?". They're preparing the end of the war

13Lucky

2h ago

@Shortbig98

Losers know they will lose... that does not mean it is ending.

13Lucky

14h ago

Night of Fire: BOOM by BOOM Ukraine Liberates Donbas from Russian Grip https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmmusZedAMk

jsjr

15h ago

A landlocked rumpstate is all that's gonna be left, where the Ukronazis can hang out and jack each other off and give each other blowjobs. Its harsh but they took my money.

13Lucky

15h ago

@jsjr

Crimea is already falling. Their anti-air is all blown up.

13Lucky

16h ago

10 ICE Agents Caught on Video with Their Dicks in Their Hands at an Elementary School Playground! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRlaMrLsxgE

13Lucky

16h ago

EVEN A FOX NEWS POLL ON BBB: 59% OF AMERICANS HATE IT!!

13Lucky

17h ago

GOP Passes MASSIVELY UNPOPULAR "Big Beautiful Bill" Ahead of 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-HthXhOMQI HAHAHAHA

zoldado

21h ago

It's happening! Is it true? Congratulations to everyone who bought from the store! https://x.com/peacemaket71/status/1940850948311548073

TRUTH

21h ago

Joe is an old money.

noblesse.oblige

22h ago

The Big Beautiful Bill has PASSED the House of Representatives.

noblesse.oblige

1d ago

Hello old friends, we're moving towards ceasefire soon

jsjr

1d ago

Next week Zelensky again has to decide if he should prolong Martial Law. But, you see, hes not a dictator you see, it literally said in their constitution that they are now allowed to hold elections during martial law you see..

duderr

1d ago

noblesse.oblige has predicted nine of the last zero ceasefires

13Lucky

17h ago

@duderr

Nine? More like the last fifty of zero!

finaltrader

1d ago

TODAY will very likely be the day that Putin declares ceasefire over Ukraine. a ceasefire

RoniBaloni

1d ago

@finaltrader

shouldn't you spend time searching for food or something?

zoldado

1d ago

Good morning, as we're talking about something very big coming up on the part of the market protecting itself, given Trump's strategy of achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine no matter what... https://x.com/SputnikInt/status/1940769235610796353

zoldado

1d ago

@zoldado

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1940777729227739469

jsjr

1d ago

WAR OF ATTRITION BABY!!!

13Lucky

1d ago

@jsjr

Complete Army COLLAPSE… 20,000 Russian Soldiers Go AWOL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brCOKOFE9MY

jsjr

1d ago

The war will go on until Ukraine run out of men of fighting age. Unless, of course, they out of weapons first.

jsjr

1d ago

Financial Times: Zelensky will attempt to hold a phone call with Trump on Friday to discuss the suspension of military aid to Ukraine.

losnikita

1d ago

bomboclats, u r so funny thinking 2025 will be ceasefire, I am from Ukraine and it sounds so stupid that this will happen

Gena🐊

1d ago

@losnikita

The end of the war because one team wins also counts for YES

Cooked-Vignette

21h ago

@losnikita

ceasefire maybe given how successful ukrainian strikes have been lately but end to the war highly unlikely yea. there is way too much money in it

Fkhotcaramel

2d ago

LOL he got banned again

jsjr

2d ago

They where literally CANNIBALS that ate human flesh and yet their country managed to exist longer than Ukraine. (The Ruskies will finish Ukraine later this year)

jsjr

2d ago

hope your right, means money for me

malmal

3d ago

Anything with the word "Wide consensus" means whatever whales are betting on. Be warned

jsjr

3d ago

Less than the stupid cannibal civilization at NEW Guinea

jsjr

2d ago

'YOUR YAMMERING giberish..

jsjr

3d ago

LOL Ukraine will be less than 30yo when it dissapears from Earth, less than the EASTER Islanders

jsjr

3d ago

So did you also notice that Zelensky prefers black shirts lately? So what's deal with Nazis and black shirts?

zoldado

3d ago

Hey bros, if you're in this market, don't miss this opportunity that few noticed... https://polymarket.com/event/will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-before-august

PeaceSeeker

3d ago

@zoldado

even 500x is not profitable for this shit

Gena🐊

3d ago

@zoldado

Thanks! buying your bags right now

jsjr

3d ago

..they wont tho, cuz they're being impossible. Entitled, ungrateful, impossible.

tacticalanalysis

4d ago

Russia announced they own all of Lugansk oblast now.

jsjr

4d ago

Apparently there's an old Russian saying that wherever a Russian soldier puts his boots, that land belongs to Russia from then on. Ukraine should probably try and negotiate a deal before Russian soldiers puts boots in more oblasts. Ukraine won't tho..

Gara

4d ago

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1p0CSpse6YwLApvwKt173bDg1cQVNcNEe0_2sNCvhaZs/edit?tab=t.0 HEADS UP there are currently about 6 markets being scammed at the same time. Before they would do it one at a time and keep a low profile, this month they went all out.

Car

4d ago

ITS HAPPENING

TRUTH

3d ago

@Car

why?

efesis

4d ago

Don't bet on this site. It's all a scam. Despite many entities, including an official Polymarket account, declaring it a suit, it still seems as though the market may resolve to claim that 'No." https://protos.com/zelenskyy-suit-polymarket-dispute/

lightningG

4d ago

Wow. gay.caramel and 12INCHCOCK (or POA) deserve each other. One is a gay, the other is a trans!

Fkhotcaramel

3d ago

@lightningG

They r lovers for sure

arash.

4d ago

https://polymarket.com/event/will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july?tid=1751290430652

bigjeep

4d ago

this is the end

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Order Book

Market Context

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Rules