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Key S&P 500 Model Turns Bearish for First Time in Two Years

Staying Cautious in Markets Amid a Trade War, Trump's Posts

Takeaways NEW

A stock-market indicator has entered a phase historically associated with the worst return prospects for the S&P 500 Index after trade fears gripped financial markets and dimmed Corporate America’s outlook for profit growth.

The Equity Market Regime Model, a Bloomberg Intelligence model that tracks the benchmark stock gauge and clusters periods into three phases — accelerated growth (green), moderate growth (yellow) and decline (red) — fell into the cautious red zone in March and April, according to data compiled by BI’s Gina Martin Adams and Gillian Wolff.